PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0xb81623a40D434C50DbFE4d126bE4833B6a793FF2-1764670960834

0xb81623a40d434c50dbfe4d126be4833b6a793ff2

Realised P&L
$33.27
Volume
$1.2k
Markets traded
67
Open portfolio
$24.32

Can you copy this trader?

plausibleNo blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar2.8%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded67
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration21.8% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration30.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026? · Yes0.1180.147$7.52+$1.52
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes0.5090.595$4.67+$0.67
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? · Yes0.0800.070$4.38$0.63
Will the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026? · Yes0.3830.390$3.06+$0.05
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.1290.105$2.46$0.54
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.5300.595$2.25+$0.25
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01? · Yes0.2600.000$0.00$1.00
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? · Yes0.2400.000$0.00$1.00
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10? · Yes0.1700.000$0.00$1.00
Will France win on 2026-07-14? · Yes0.4120.000$0.00$1.00
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-11? · Yes0.1700.000$0.00$1.00
Will Canada win on 2026-07-04? · Yes0.1900.000$0.00$1.00
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? · Yes0.8500.000$0.00$1.00
Will England win on 2026-07-15? · Yes0.3650.000$0.00$1.00
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? · Yes0.5000.000$0.00$1.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-17 15:43Will the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?BUY0.3899999337$2.00
09-17 09:27Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?BUY0.1$3.00
09-17 08:18Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?BUY0.1039999958$1.00
09-16 08:16Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?BUY0.1659999831$1.00
09-16 08:16Will the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?BUY0.3699999593$1.00
09-14 15:19Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?BUY0.1879999977$1.00
09-13 08:06Will the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?SELL0.41$6.51
09-13 08:05Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?SELL0.297370723$19.99
09-11 06:06Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL0.42$1.46
09-08 15:42Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?SELL0.0055499867$0.63
09-07 13:02Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?BUY0.08$5.00
09-07 13:00Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?BUY0.027$1.00
09-07 12:592026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseBUY0.52$1.00
09-07 11:33Will the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?BUY0.299999925$2.00
09-07 10:22Will the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?BUY0.29999982$1.00