TimRob
0xb7ef580a13f0463561170074bece5fb7bbd3812c
- Realised P&L
- $24.0k
- Volume
- $6.34M
- Markets traded
- 479
- Open portfolio
- $1.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded479
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.022 | 0.025 | $441.61 | +$63.07 |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.380 | 0.385 | $354.37 | +$4.60 |
| Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027? · Yes | 0.874 | 0.820 | $312.58 | −$20.59 |
| Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% before 2027? · Yes | 0.665 | 0.730 | $151.29 | +$13.38 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? · No | 0.420 | 0.185 | $1.57 | −$2.00 |
| Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.40% before 2027? · No | 0.550 | 0.625 | $1.25 | +$0.15 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September? · Yes | 0.013 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.21 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.0kat 0.130Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$4.7kat 0.870Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$4.5kat 0.200Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
- +$4.3kat 0.397Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$2.1kat 0.110Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 12:33 | Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% before 2027? | BUY | 0.6654161641 | $137.91 |
| 10-02 12:33 | Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027? | BUY | 0.8740083945 | $333.17 |
| 10-02 12:11 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October? | SELL | 0.3345277062 | $161.07 |
| 10-02 08:08 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October? | BUY | 0.2879077013 | $138.62 |
| 09-30 21:54 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in October? | BUY | 0.9899268293 | $405.87 |
| 09-30 20:20 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0229855293 | $163.23 |
| 09-30 13:07 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.66 | $6.60 |
| 09-30 11:22 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.021 | $84.27 |
| 09-29 18:31 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September? | BUY | 0.0109468681 | $2.86 |
| 09-29 18:26 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September? | BUY | 0.0086486094 | $0.83 |
| 09-29 17:56 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.67 | $450.77 |
| 09-29 07:44 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.009 | $6.06 |
| 09-29 06:45 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.998 | $671.65 |
| 09-29 06:45 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.996 | $670.31 |
| 09-28 16:22 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September? | BUY | 0.0138614853 | $15.53 |