nianyuwo
0xb7ef39a048a0823cb3c2168304e018e29d85142d
- Realised P&L
- $2.72
- Volume
- $6.9k
- Markets traded
- 87
- Open portfolio
- $12.98
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded87
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration7.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration85.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? · No | 0.999 | 0.999 | $11.09 | −$0.01 |
| Michigan Senate favorite on November 2? · El-Sayed | 0.740 | 0.930 | $1.89 | +$0.39 |
| Hornets vs. Pacers · Hornets | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.40 |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 8? · No | 0.044 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,200 March 2-8? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.60 |
| Miami (OH) vs. Buffalo · Buffalo | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.45at 0.560Jaguars vs. Cardinals
- +$2.31at 0.510Rockets vs. Cavaliers
- +$2.26at 0.470Suns vs. Trail Blazers
- +$0.51at 0.997US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?
- +$0.47at 0.997Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 18?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 10:07 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.10 |
| 10-16 10:01 | Michigan Senate favorite on November 2? | BUY | 0.7399998816 | $1.50 |
| 09-10 08:01 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9939999776 | $12.50 |
| 08-28 12:27 | Trump out as President by August 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.50 |
| 07-19 08:15 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.50 |
| 06-07 09:01 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 8? | BUY | 0.998 | $170.00 |
| 05-29 08:33 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $170.00 |
| 05-26 01:56 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.00 |
| 05-26 01:56 | Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets in May 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $170.00 |
| 05-15 11:18 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15? | BUY | 0.9989999951 | $170.00 |
| 05-11 10:24 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.9969999976 | $170.00 |
| 05-01 07:03 | Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $170.00 |
| 04-24 08:43 | Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $167.98 |
| 04-20 08:10 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $170.76 |
| 04-15 03:12 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 15? | BUY | 0.999 | $169.98 |