alphanavy1
0xb7e74385729833767630b92f2f7eec3391fc11a3
- Realised P&L
- $50.38
- Volume
- $7.5k
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $908.53
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)93.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? · Yes | 0.697 | 0.775 | $166.90 | +$16.90 |
| Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.940 | 0.983 | $114.97 | +$4.97 |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? · No | 0.950 | 0.960 | $111.10 | +$1.10 |
| Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? · No | 0.930 | 0.985 | $105.91 | +$5.91 |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? · No | 0.952 | 0.992 | $104.15 | +$4.15 |
| Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? · No | 0.958 | 0.994 | $103.75 | +$3.75 |
| Will Venezuela become 51st state? · No | 0.954 | 0.979 | $92.31 | +$2.31 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · No | 0.851 | 0.159 | $74.74 | −$325.26 |
| Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027? · Yes | 0.138 | 0.034 | $21.91 | −$68.03 |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.105 | $12.57 | −$64.07 |
| Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027? · Yes | 0.441 | 0.032 | $0.22 | −$2.78 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.920 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$150.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$137.11at 0.766US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
- +$47.62at 0.630US strike on Cuba by December 31?
- +$35.36at 0.320Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
- +$25.73at 0.820Will Trump visit China by June 30?
- +$22.48at 0.720Maduro guilty of all counts?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-27 15:06 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.912 | $182.65 |
| 09-27 15:06 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.08 | $15.53 |
| 09-27 15:05 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.843 | $155.68 |
| 08-21 10:39 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | SELL | 0.83 | $197.61 |
| 06-09 08:34 | U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? | SELL | 0.9187352065 | $114.12 |
| 06-09 08:34 | Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.93 | $96.20 |
| 06-09 08:33 | US strike on Mexico by December 31? | SELL | 0.9 | $126.92 |
| 05-21 09:22 | Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? | SELL | 0.878424337 | $112.61 |
| 05-21 09:22 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.4331392 | $135.36 |
| 05-21 09:21 | Maduro guilty of all counts? | SELL | 0.8278999664 | $172.48 |
| 05-11 07:42 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.94 | $113.41 |
| 05-11 07:42 | Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.92 | $117.67 |
| 05-11 07:41 | Will Trump visit China by June 30? | SELL | 0.996 | $145.75 |
| 04-06 09:53 | Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027? | BUY | 0.4411764706 | $3.00 |
| 04-06 09:49 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $100.00 |