ExpectedValue098
0xb7e4856866162ec14f37a828cd5d00deb181b67b
- Realised P&L
- $-587.53
- Volume
- $168.6k
- Markets traded
- 246
- Open portfolio
- $1.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded246
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$196.00at 0.020Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 England?
- +$130.20at 0.070Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Norway?
- +$98.46at 0.017Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$96.15at 0.038Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?
- +$86.00at 0.140Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 08:44 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.9769019768 | $298.98 |
| 08-05 08:20 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.974 | $82.14 |
| 08-05 08:19 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.977 | $293.09 |
| 08-02 07:21 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.053 | $10.60 |
| 08-02 07:21 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $32.00 |
| 08-02 07:20 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.3495 | $69.90 |
| 08-02 03:40 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $80.00 |
| 08-02 02:59 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.943672619 | $317.07 |
| 08-01 06:20 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.979 | $195.80 |
| 07-31 05:06 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9454545105 | $294.72 |
| 07-30 13:06 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.427 | $31.21 |
| 07-30 13:05 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.38849 | $38.85 |
| 07-30 13:04 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9670588235 | $164.40 |
| 07-30 04:14 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.984952381 | $206.84 |
| 07-30 04:13 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9409541284 | $205.13 |