kinokolo
0xb7648a747095da51b0f054a07d637583e90410ba
- Realised P&L
- $-85.07
- Volume
- $2.9k
- Markets traded
- 46
- Open portfolio
- $74.84
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded46
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample46 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)23.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the TX-35 House seat? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.585 | $19.40 | +$0.17 |
| Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the September meeting? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.515 | $16.49 | −$1.12 |
| Will Democrats win exactly 3 House seats in Iowa in the 2026 midterm elections? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.415 | $12.46 | −$3.45 |
| Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting? · No | 0.440 | 0.390 | $9.24 | −$1.18 |
| Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026? · No | 0.520 | 0.555 | $8.32 | +$0.53 |
| Will Guillaume Rousseau win the next Richmond Quebec National Assembly election? · No | 0.480 | 0.410 | $8.20 | −$1.40 |
| Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be less than $1,137,000 on September 30? · Yes | 0.406 | 0.018 | $0.74 | −$16.48 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.46at 0.360Will UNI reach $8.00 by December 31, 2026?
- +$3.16at 0.420Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?
- +$2.70at 0.380Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?
- +$2.59at 0.400Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
- +$0.32at 0.485Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 18:37 | Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? | SELL | 0.51 | $5.10 |
| 09-13 08:05 | Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | SELL | 0.36 | $10.04 |
| 09-12 20:18 | Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.52 | $14.48 |
| 09-12 20:17 | Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? | SELL | 0.51 | $9.73 |
| 09-10 10:51 | Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? | SELL | 0.37 | $2.50 |
| 09-10 10:48 | Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? | SELL | 0.38 | $1.90 |
| 09-08 01:40 | Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | SELL | 0.58 | $3.38 |
| 09-08 01:39 | Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | SELL | 0.58 | $9.04 |
| 09-07 06:01 | Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | SELL | 0.56 | $7.26 |
| 09-07 06:00 | Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | SELL | 0.57 | $2.85 |
| 09-06 16:37 | Will Jo Westwood win the next Kingborough mayoral election? | SELL | 0.39 | $7.80 |
| 09-06 12:00 | Will Stephanie Cameron win the next Meander Valley mayoral election? | SELL | 0.22 | $2.42 |
| 09-06 11:58 | Will Stephanie Cameron win the next Meander Valley mayoral election? | SELL | 0.23 | $2.30 |
| 09-06 09:25 | Will Paul Giamatti win Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.47 | $3.72 |
| 09-06 08:14 | Will White House post 180-199 posts from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.37 | $7.99 |