dima77
0xb5ca7657110d086ffef0b207f2b959f2f9e5a286
- Realised P&L
- $-679.30
- Volume
- $52.3k
- Markets traded
- 113
- Open portfolio
- $67.15
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded113
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration83.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.312 | 0.115 | $56.35 | −$96.65 |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.309 | 0.295 | $8.87 | −$0.40 |
| Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.023 | 0.022 | $1.93 | −$0.07 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$186.46at 0.771Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale?
- +$94.90at 0.705Lighter Airdrop on December 29?
- +$85.72at 0.536MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?
- +$58.64at 0.230Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch?
- +$48.95at 0.380Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 22:27 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | SELL | 0.9975 | $23.56 |
| 07-19 19:37 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5924999651 | $14.00 |
| 06-14 19:34 | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.309 | $9.27 |
| 06-14 19:33 | Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.029 | $9.96 |
| 05-31 21:18 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1159999802 | $5.00 |
| 05-28 19:36 | Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.009 | $2.55 |
| 05-10 21:29 | MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 5-11? | SELL | 0.7046133333 | $10.57 |
| 05-08 19:17 | Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.0232874032 | $10.00 |
| 04-27 19:05 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $1.12 |
| 04-25 20:48 | Will Elon Musk be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? | SELL | 0.02 | $2.38 |
| 04-25 20:47 | Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? | SELL | 0.041 | $2.96 |
| 04-25 20:47 | Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.701 | $10.51 |
| 04-20 16:26 | Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $4.00 |
| 04-16 18:13 | Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.0149105353 | $10.00 |
| 04-13 19:16 | Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.2501880769 | $26.02 |