PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

goodman-1

0xb575b087095cdae24cb93b22d20424f8290387ec

Realised P&L
$44.19
Volume
$782.97
Markets traded
17
Open portfolio
$169.96

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar5.6%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
BlockerMarkets traded17
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration54.0% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample10 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration37.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 9, 2026? · Yes0.9670.966$63.76−$0.04
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 10, 2026? · Yes0.8700.885$49.61+$0.84
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? · No0.5050.500$20.00−$0.20
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? · No0.6870.725$14.50+$0.77
Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 10, 2026? · Yes0.3140.345$7.80+$0.69
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by December 31? · No0.3420.235$5.88−$2.67
Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 11, 2026? · Yes0.3170.360$5.40+$0.65
Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 12, 2026? · Yes0.3500.335$1.68−$0.07
Russia strikes another vessel in the Black Sea by August 21, 2026? · No0.1370.120$1.34−$0.18

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-08 22:09Will Russia target Kyiv on October 9, 2026?BUY0.98$5.90
10-08 22:09Will Russia target Kyiv on October 9, 2026?BUY0.966$0.44
10-08 21:43Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?BUY0.51$10.20
10-08 19:50Will Russia target Kyiv on October 10, 2026?BUY0.87$17.40
10-08 19:49Will Russia target Kyiv on October 10, 2026?BUY0.87$31.37
10-08 10:15Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 9, 2026?SELL0.35$3.50
10-07 06:06Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 7, 2026?BUY0.7$7.00
10-07 05:25Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 7, 2026?BUY0.72$14.40
10-07 05:24Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 7, 2026?BUY0.73$14.60
10-07 00:58Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 7, 2026?BUY0.56$11.20
10-05 11:51Will Russia invade another country by December 31, 2027?BUY0.81$16.20
10-05 07:09Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?SELL0.74$3.70