goodman-1
0xb575b087095cdae24cb93b22d20424f8290387ec
- Realised P&L
- $44.19
- Volume
- $782.97
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $169.96
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration54.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia target Kyiv on October 9, 2026? · Yes | 0.967 | 0.966 | $63.76 | −$0.04 |
| Will Russia target Kyiv on October 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.885 | $49.61 | +$0.84 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? · No | 0.505 | 0.500 | $20.00 | −$0.20 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.687 | 0.725 | $14.50 | +$0.77 |
| Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.314 | 0.345 | $7.80 | +$0.69 |
| U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by December 31? · No | 0.342 | 0.235 | $5.88 | −$2.67 |
| Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 11, 2026? · Yes | 0.317 | 0.360 | $5.40 | +$0.65 |
| Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 12, 2026? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.335 | $1.68 | −$0.07 |
| Russia strikes another vessel in the Black Sea by August 21, 2026? · No | 0.137 | 0.120 | $1.34 | −$0.18 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$29.40at 0.656Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 7, 2026?
- +$13.30at 0.057Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?
- +$2.85at 0.795Will Russia invade another country by December 31, 2027?
- +$2.60at 0.250Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 9, 2026?
- +$1.90at 0.603Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 22:09 | Will Russia target Kyiv on October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.98 | $5.90 |
| 10-08 22:09 | Will Russia target Kyiv on October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.966 | $0.44 |
| 10-08 21:43 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.51 | $10.20 |
| 10-08 19:50 | Will Russia target Kyiv on October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $17.40 |
| 10-08 19:49 | Will Russia target Kyiv on October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $31.37 |
| 10-08 10:15 | Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 9, 2026? | SELL | 0.35 | $3.50 |
| 10-07 06:06 | Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $7.00 |
| 10-07 05:25 | Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $14.40 |
| 10-07 05:24 | Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.73 | $14.60 |
| 10-07 00:58 | Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.56 | $11.20 |
| 10-05 11:51 | Will Russia invade another country by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.81 | $16.20 |
| 10-05 07:09 | Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31? | SELL | 0.74 | $3.70 |