fender
0xb52bfe77fa1b70d8547a63572c70224e975dc40c
- Realised P&L
- $-6.13
- Volume
- $5.4k
- Markets traded
- 27
- Open portfolio
- $321.28
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded27
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration60.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample30 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No | 0.500 | 0.976 | $195.10 | +$95.10 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December? · No | 0.979 | 0.988 | $100.87 | +$0.87 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 on October 8? · No | 0.991 | 0.994 | $20.06 | +$0.06 |
| Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.025 | $4.90 | −$95.10 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.125 | $0.35 | −$0.65 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.1kat 0.500Ethereum Up or Down - September 28, 2PM ET
- +$1.4kat 0.500Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET
- +$7.43at 0.376Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
- +$2.75at 0.929Will Mahamudu Bawumia be the next President of Ghana?
- +$1.17at 0.630Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Nov 29-Dec 6?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 13:01 | Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 on October 8? | BUY | 0.9909999998 | $20.00 |
| 09-28 18:55 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 2PM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $10.00 |
| 07-20 17:09 | Dogecoin Up or Down - July 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET | BUY | 0.9199999816 | $2.00 |
| 07-19 08:11 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December? | BUY | 0.979 | $100.00 |
| 07-19 08:11 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3599998704 | $1.00 |
| 07-19 08:10 | Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | BUY | 0.424999983 | $5.00 |
| 02-26 18:12 | LoL: Verdant vs Bulldog Esports (BO1) - NLC Regular Season | BUY | 0.7899999289 | $2.00 |
| 02-26 18:10 | Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | SELL | 0.999 | $887.99 |
| 02-24 11:12 | Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.999 | $888.00 |
| 02-24 11:12 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.9919999959 | $50.00 |
| 02-24 11:11 | Will Opinion launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9959999942 | $100.00 |
| 02-24 11:10 | Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.8099998736 | $5.00 |
| 10-27 14:02 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31? | BUY | 0.996 | $4.44 |
| 06-22 13:23 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? | BUY | 0.9849999989 | $4.37 |
| 03-12 15:54 | Will Gustavo Jalkh win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.999 | $4.37 |