0xb50d8f019e36e0c4d1c76cd70744f898e037e579
- Realised P&L
- $-7.72
- Volume
- $183.64
- Markets traded
- 51
- Open portfolio
- $4.81
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded51
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample47 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Vinted be #3 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.625 | $2.31 | +$1.31 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.720 | $1.20 | +$0.20 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.725 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.085 | $0.32 | −$1.63 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.92at 0.259Will China's CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026?
- +$5.63at 0.268S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5?
- +$3.13at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?
- +$2.35at 0.806Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $145 Week of July 20 2026?
- +$2.19at 0.321Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 18:46 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 10:44 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on September 17? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 02:23 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 18:23 | Will Vinted be #3 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 10:19 | Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times during his remarks in North Carolina? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 02:19 | Will Trump say "Make America Healthy Again" during his remarks in North Carolina? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 09-11 01:32 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 17:09 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 09:08 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 22:03 | Will annual inflation be 3.4% in August? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 12:49 | Will Chewy say "Automation" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 01:20 | Will Macy's say "Headwind" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 09-07 16:35 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5099998317 | $1.00 |
| 09-07 08:22 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $168 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.55 | $1.00 |
| 09-03 23:17 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of August 31 2026? | BUY | 0.3499998775 | $1.00 |