0xB4F78a04C15478418d589e19C17870977b1589D6-1774185493145
0xb4f78a04c15478418d589e19c17870977b1589d6
- Realised P&L
- $-914.70
- Volume
- $16.5k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $428.87
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)16.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.108 | 0.045 | $268.64 | −$379.08 |
| Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.075 | 0.015 | $59.27 | −$228.22 |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.108 | 0.055 | $56.28 | −$54.72 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.172 | 0.055 | $37.40 | −$79.30 |
| Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.148 | 0.027 | $7.28 | −$32.71 |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.088 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.90 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.092 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$42.70 |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.044 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$33.00 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$21.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$48.30at 0.340US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
- +$-10.00at 0.315Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
- +$-20.10at 0.281US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
- +$-61.00at 0.243Will Trump visit China by May 15?
- +$-331.27at 0.344Will XRP reach $1.60 in April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-07 18:54 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1099999966 | $27.00 |
| 07-07 18:00 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.0820000003 | $20.00 |
| 07-07 17:59 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $30.00 |
| 06-30 21:33 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.1534738281 | $23.99 |
| 06-30 21:33 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1399999956 | $25.00 |
| 06-30 21:30 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1399999953 | $24.00 |
| 06-30 21:30 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.1379133121 | $25.00 |
| 06-28 07:17 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $15.00 |
| 06-28 07:16 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.149999994 | $20.00 |
| 06-25 17:22 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $28.00 |
| 06-25 17:22 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.0939999969 | $25.00 |
| 06-25 09:41 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999985 | $50.00 |
| 06-17 16:26 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1049999885 | $8.00 |
| 06-17 16:25 | Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.044 | $33.00 |
| 06-14 16:03 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999984 | $49.00 |