obakobakk
0xb4d2b5c75b176f364beefe9dffb605c8b161fa62
- Realised P&L
- $15.8k
- Volume
- $1.48M
- Markets traded
- 262
- Open portfolio
- $19.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded262
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration58.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.646 | 0.835 | $8.3k | +$1.9k |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.500 | 0.799 | $8.0k | +$3.0k |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.201 | $2.0k | −$3.0k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.553 | 0.474 | $806.65 | −$133.89 |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.425 | $212.61 | +$7.67 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on October 8? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.475 | $71.25 | +$44.25 |
| Valorant: 100 Thieves vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs · 100 Thieves | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$28.00 |
| China Open: Coco Gauff vs Xinran Sun · Xinran Sun | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.1kat 0.200Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$1.9kat 0.972Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$1.7kat 0.987Fed rate cut by September 18?
- +$1.4kat 0.885Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$917.78at 0.915Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 10:02 | Valorant: 100 Thieves vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs | BUY | 0.28 | $28.00 |
| 10-08 07:59 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.46869875 | $93.74 |
| 10-08 06:23 | Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on October 8? | BUY | 0.18 | $27.00 |
| 10-06 16:17 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.504 | $151.20 |
| 10-05 05:05 | China Open: Coco Gauff vs Xinran Sun | BUY | 0.07 | $7.00 |
| 10-02 13:04 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.538 | $107.60 |
| 09-24 02:39 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.34 | $34.00 |
| 09-24 02:38 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.34 | $2.0k |
| 09-24 02:37 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.6147270021 | $2.2k |
| 09-22 10:12 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.48 | $9.60 |
| 09-22 10:07 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.48 | $1.9k |
| 09-22 10:07 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.64974798 | $649.75 |
| 09-17 15:39 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24? | BUY | 0.94 | $1.9k |
| 09-16 18:09 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.999 | $11.9k |
| 09-16 09:59 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on September 16? | SELL | 0.999 | $9.99 |