JaPierdoleBober
0xb4b2c182ca2916eebcb478442b1b17ccf67d23fd
- Realised P&L
- $2.3k
- Volume
- $90.3k
- Markets traded
- 216
- Open portfolio
- $329.17
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded216
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration67.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.705 | $70.50 | +$3.50 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.900 | 0.945 | $47.25 | +$2.25 |
| Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.935 | $46.75 | +$1.25 |
| Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.900 | 0.905 | $45.25 | +$0.25 |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.745 | $37.25 | +$0.25 |
| Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.735 | $36.75 | +$1.75 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 19, 2026? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.715 | $35.75 | +$0.75 |
| Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.948 | 0.967 | $9.66 | +$0.18 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.6kat 0.956Will the government shutdown end November 13?
- +$416.13at 0.676Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
- +$72.73at 0.791Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?
- +$57.83at 0.168Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?
- +$38.43at 0.394Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 18:53 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 4, 2026? | SELL | 0.22 | $0.18 |
| 09-29 19:26 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | SELL | 0.0267316 | $5.35 |
| 09-29 16:08 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | SELL | 0.2650532602 | $16.42 |
| 09-26 08:13 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | SELL | 0.81 | $40.44 |
| 08-22 21:25 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 22? | BUY | 0.99 | $9.90 |
| 08-22 13:39 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 22? | BUY | 0.97 | $9.70 |
| 08-22 13:38 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 22? | BUY | 0.99 | $0.84 |
| 08-22 13:37 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on August 22? | BUY | 0.96 | $32.61 |
| 08-17 08:18 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on August 17? | BUY | 0.05 | $0.50 |
| 08-09 19:36 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on August 10? | BUY | 0.998 | $19.34 |
| 08-09 19:36 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C or higher on August 10? | BUY | 0.996 | $9.96 |
| 08-09 19:36 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 10? | BUY | 0.99 | $10.66 |
| 07-31 16:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET | BUY | 0.7099994391 | $1.00 |
| 07-25 21:42 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 26? | BUY | 0.992 | $5.95 |
| 07-25 11:42 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on July 25? | BUY | 0.998 | $199.53 |