mrkinetiq
0xb48b1a8f796ba414672f8974dbfedca5c6c504eb
- Realised P&L
- $15.4k
- Volume
- $1.45M
- Markets traded
- 596
- Open portfolio
- $4.4k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded596
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.7kat 0.795MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$3.0kat 0.318US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$2.9kat 0.586US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$2.2kat 0.430Will another country strike Iran by March 31?
- +$1.8kat 0.116MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 21:14 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.3281853568 | $70.82 |
| 09-14 21:13 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.3314642517 | $347.71 |
| 09-14 21:11 | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.839 | $55.24 |
| 09-14 21:11 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | SELL | 0.1495253991 | $82.42 |
| 09-14 21:10 | Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.6 | $240.00 |
| 09-14 21:10 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.61 | $244.00 |
| 09-14 21:09 | Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | SELL | 0.3 | $598.17 |
| 09-14 21:08 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.78 | $390.00 |
| 09-14 21:08 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.9030536644 | $901.97 |
| 09-14 21:07 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | SELL | 0.52 | $1.1k |
| 09-14 21:07 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | SELL | 0.7459199064 | $1.1k |
| 09-14 21:06 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.85 | $1.1k |
| 09-14 21:05 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.83 | $2.1k |
| 09-14 21:04 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | SELL | 0.8278974134 | $2.0k |
| 09-14 21:03 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.52 | $2.3k |