DawsonQuest
0xb43bd57868c2e4ff5508e9a554f23d818cb92a91
- Realised P&L
- $-435.97
- Volume
- $37.9k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $16.70
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration46.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.90at 0.708Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
- +$0.70at 0.550Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?
- +$0.32at 0.400Will Graham Platner drop out by July 8?
- +$-1.42at 0.001Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET
- +$-8.35at 0.046Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 23:05 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%? | BUY | 0.01436794 | $20.00 |
| 10-10 18:31 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.11 | $29.29 |
| 10-04 18:10 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.3799999992 | $101.20 |
| 10-04 17:54 | Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | BUY | 0.0591427378 | $50.00 |
| 10-04 17:49 | Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | SELL | 0.0577355807 | $161.28 |
| 10-02 20:17 | Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | BUY | 0.0475429441 | $95.26 |
| 10-02 13:44 | Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | BUY | 0.04 | $4.85 |
| 10-02 11:49 | Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | BUY | 0.0362258851 | $24.22 |
| 07-08 19:17 | Will Graham Platner drop out by July 8? | SELL | 0.42 | $6.67 |
| 07-08 04:27 | Will Graham Platner drop out by July 8? | BUY | 0.4 | $6.35 |
| 06-08 11:29 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? | BUY | 0.0168168104 | $4.59 |
| 06-08 11:24 | Kash Patel out by June 30? | BUY | 0.08 | $5.00 |
| 06-03 10:24 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.801 | $8.39 |
| 06-01 13:14 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.6999999905 | $7.34 |
| 05-14 21:24 | Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999427 | $1.95 |