PolyBot

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Traders

DawsonQuest

0xb43bd57868c2e4ff5508e9a554f23d818cb92a91

Realised P&L
$-435.97
Volume
$37.9k
Markets traded
25
Open portfolio
$16.70

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded25
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration46.9% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample10 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%? · Yes0.0140.012$16.70−$3.30
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? · Yes0.0320.000$0.00−$7.70
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? · Yes0.0040.000$0.00−$2.00
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? · Yes0.0110.000$0.00−$9.50
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? · Yes0.0170.000$0.00−$4.59
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? · Yes0.0130.000$0.00−$2.00
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? · Yes0.0590.000$0.00−$50.00
Will Portugal be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? · Yes0.0400.000$0.00−$7.00
Will Luxembourg be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? · Yes0.0750.000$0.00−$10.00
Will Croatia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? · Yes0.0050.000$0.00−$3.55
Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? · Yes0.4010.000$0.00−$8.73
Kash Patel out by June 30? · Yes0.0800.000$0.00−$5.00
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? · Yes0.0180.000$0.00−$42.00
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? · Yes0.1400.000$0.00−$10.00
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? · Yes0.0010.000$0.00−$2.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-15 23:05Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?BUY0.01436794$20.00
10-10 18:31Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL0.11$29.29
10-04 18:10Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.3799999992$101.20
10-04 17:54Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?BUY0.0591427378$50.00
10-04 17:49Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?SELL0.0577355807$161.28
10-02 20:17Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?BUY0.0475429441$95.26
10-02 13:44Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?BUY0.04$4.85
10-02 11:49Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?BUY0.0362258851$24.22
07-08 19:17Will Graham Platner drop out by July 8?SELL0.42$6.67
07-08 04:27Will Graham Platner drop out by July 8?BUY0.4$6.35
06-08 11:29Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?BUY0.0168168104$4.59
06-08 11:24Kash Patel out by June 30?BUY0.08$5.00
06-03 10:24Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?SELL0.801$8.39
06-01 13:14Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?BUY0.6999999905$7.34
05-14 21:24Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?BUY0.4299999427$1.95