TopDog
0xb4283fe51375e14f5ec2401155fb43990c035e88
- Realised P&L
- $43.95
- Volume
- $3.7k
- Markets traded
- 93
- Open portfolio
- $67.72
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded93
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$87.91at 0.108Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by December 31?
- +$28.35at 0.468Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 61-62°F on March 11?
- +$19.95at 0.430Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
- +$13.79at 0.580Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?
- +$12.81at 0.410Nothing Ever Happens: December
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-15 19:44 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.0699999958 | $15.00 |
| 03-09 06:58 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.4690036746 | $20.00 |
| 03-02 01:11 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.2549999638 | $5.00 |
| 02-17 07:10 | North Korea missile launch by February 28? | BUY | 0.6699999809 | $7.00 |
| 02-17 07:09 | Nothing Ever Happens: US Strike Edition | BUY | 0.6299999821 | $12.00 |
| 02-17 07:09 | Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | BUY | 0.629999973 | $7.00 |
| 02-17 06:55 | Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo | SELL | 0.24 | $14.40 |
| 02-17 06:55 | US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6199999942 | $15.00 |
| 02-17 06:52 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | BUY | 0.677999981 | $5.00 |
| 02-06 02:32 | Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30? | BUY | 0.16 | $5.00 |
| 01-28 01:36 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.35 | $3.64 |
| 01-19 00:57 | Rams vs. Bears | BUY | 0.4599999595 | $5.00 |
| 01-18 23:31 | Rams vs. Bears | BUY | 0.3499999615 | $5.00 |
| 01-11 22:59 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.4799999808 | $5.00 |
| 01-08 02:40 | US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? | BUY | 0.75 | $8.00 |