PolyBot

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Traders

TopDog

0xb4283fe51375e14f5ec2401155fb43990c035e88

Realised P&L
$43.95
Volume
$3.7k
Markets traded
93
Open portfolio
$67.72

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded93
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration39.1% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration45.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.4690.725$30.92+$10.92
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · No0.5200.795$15.90+$5.50
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 · Yes0.6300.815$9.06+$2.06
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? · Yes0.0700.038$8.14−$6.86
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? · Yes0.1100.018$3.70−$18.30
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? · Yes0.4050.000$0.00−$2.84
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? · No0.6200.000$0.00−$15.00
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30? · Yes0.1600.000$0.00−$5.00
Rams vs. Bears · Bears0.3980.000$0.00−$10.00
Will No Other Choice be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? · Yes0.1000.000$0.00−$2.00
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? · No0.7500.000$0.00−$8.00
Nothing Ever Happens: January · Yes0.5390.000$0.00−$25.00
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? · Yes0.1700.000$0.00−$10.03
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? · Yes0.2550.000$0.00−$5.00
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? · Yes0.4830.000$0.00−$11.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-15 19:44Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?BUY0.0699999958$15.00
03-09 06:58Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?BUY0.4690036746$20.00
03-02 01:11Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?BUY0.2549999638$5.00
02-17 07:10North Korea missile launch by February 28?BUY0.6699999809$7.00
02-17 07:09Nothing Ever Happens: US Strike EditionBUY0.6299999821$12.00
02-17 07:09Nothing Ever Happens: 2026BUY0.629999973$7.00
02-17 06:55Russia x Ukraine Peace ComboSELL0.24$14.40
02-17 06:55US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?BUY0.6199999942$15.00
02-17 06:52Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?BUY0.677999981$5.00
02-06 02:32Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?BUY0.16$5.00
01-28 01:36Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?SELL0.35$3.64
01-19 00:57Rams vs. BearsBUY0.4599999595$5.00
01-18 23:31Rams vs. BearsBUY0.3499999615$5.00
01-11 22:59Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY0.4799999808$5.00
01-08 02:40US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? BUY0.75$8.00