PolyBot

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Traders

BaruchGuilty

0xb3be134e850f73e34f4295a71a61d54e51c31015

Realised P&L
$-886.31
Volume
$73.3k
Markets traded
338
Open portfolio
$1.1k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded338
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration17.2% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration78.0% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? · Yes0.7810.958$858.35+$158.35
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? · No0.4160.890$106.87+$56.87
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.3740.295$75.37−$20.13
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? · No0.5680.900$36.12+$13.31
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? · Yes0.6630.690$10.40+$0.40
Will Israel win on 2026-09-27? · Yes0.3800.365$9.61−$0.39
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · Yes0.3400.070$3.09−$11.91
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? · Yes0.4000.000$0.00−$10.00
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? · Yes0.1100.000$0.00−$10.00
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? · Yes0.5200.000$0.00−$20.00
Will Canada vs. Morocco end in a draw? · Yes0.2900.000$0.00−$30.00
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? · Yes0.4100.000$0.00−$10.00
Iran full airspace closure by July 27? · Yes0.2940.000$0.00−$10.00
Will Greece win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? · Yes0.2180.000$0.00−$100.00
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. KK Crvena Zvezda · KK Crvena Zvezda0.2700.000$0.00−$10.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-24 16:21Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Israel?BUY0.1099999999$10.00
09-24 16:20Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?SELL0.88$11.14
09-22 17:01Will Israel win on 2026-09-27?BUY0.3799999924$10.00
09-15 17:05Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?SELL0.0810687567$11.38
09-15 11:36Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?BUY0.2796181742$29.00
09-14 09:02Exact Score: Maccabi Tel Aviv FC 1 - 0 Hapoel Tel Aviv FC?BUY0.08$10.00
09-12 10:08Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?BUY0.5517146104$10.00
09-10 07:01Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?BUY0.3599999971$10.00
09-09 21:01Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?BUY0.3399999966$20.00
09-09 20:59Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-09?SELL0.999$33.30
09-09 20:47Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?BUY0.3208368966$10.00
09-09 20:41Exact Score: SSC Napoli 0 - 2 Arsenal FC?BUY0.4595666379$10.00
09-09 09:28Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-09?BUY0.599999994$20.00
09-07 19:41Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?BUY0.8699999999$100.00
09-07 19:38Will Maccabi Tel Aviv FC win on 2026-09-07?SELL0.999$88.14