MARW-2026-Piotr
0xb3265ed7799fe1c1102b77ad50d20bf51a79d18b
- Realised P&L
- $-33.85
- Volume
- $16.9k
- Markets traded
- 188
- Open portfolio
- $238.07
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded188
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$112.29at 0.358NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets
- +$88.00at 0.120Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?
- +$83.90at 0.161Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$73.00at 0.270Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open?
- +$70.00at 0.300Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-09 16:31 | Will Trump say "Six Seven" in July? | BUY | 0.53 | $15.90 |
| 07-08 21:14 | Another World Cup card reversed? | BUY | 0.0207586 | $8.30 |
| 07-07 07:04 | Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 44m? | BUY | 0.6 | $30.00 |
| 07-07 06:24 | Will Trump say "Bull" in July? | BUY | 0.25 | $7.50 |
| 07-07 06:23 | Will Trump say "Shark" in July? | BUY | 0.3 | $15.00 |
| 07-07 06:23 | Will Trump say "Elephant" in July? | BUY | 0.15 | $4.50 |
| 07-07 06:22 | Will Trump say "Lion" in July? | BUY | 0.2 | $6.00 |
| 07-07 06:19 | Will Omar Marmoush score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.18 | $9.90 |
| 07-06 11:02 | Will James Rodríguez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.22 | $11.00 |
| 07-06 11:02 | Will Brahim Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.21 | $10.50 |
| 07-06 11:01 | Will Vitinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.16 | $3.27 |
| 07-06 11:01 | Will Weston McKennie score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.25 | $6.25 |
| 06-29 19:48 | Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? | BUY | 0.43 | $60.20 |
| 06-29 19:43 | Will Florian Wirtz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.42524 | $10.63 |
| 06-29 19:35 | Will Joshua Kimmich score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.112 | $11.20 |