IceFrosst
0xb2ca88cd9c431a0f1223029088beb0cf4f035fb0
- Realised P&L
- $1.2k
- Volume
- $1.04M
- Markets traded
- 346
- Open portfolio
- $853.55
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded346
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.756 | 0.825 | $400.15 | +$33.38 |
| GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.265 | 0.480 | $247.81 | +$111.12 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 6, 2026? · No | 0.686 | 0.635 | $120.26 | −$9.74 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 3, 2026? · No | 0.810 | 0.800 | $43.46 | −$0.54 |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.009 | $41.87 | −$253.65 |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.549 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.1k |
| Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026? · Yes | 0.688 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$496.60 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.292 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$63.27 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.101 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$35.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.3kat 0.004US government shutdown Saturday?
- +$7.8kat 0.434US government shutdown Saturday?
- +$3.5kat 0.548US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?
- +$2.2kat 0.566Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026?
- +$1.8kat 0.888Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 16:58 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.8099999948 | $44.00 |
| 11-01 16:58 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.6864148013 | $130.00 |
| 10-28 16:51 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.76 | $228.00 |
| 10-25 09:33 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6638263246 | $600.00 |
| 10-25 09:33 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6867809103 | $372.72 |
| 10-25 09:33 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.7870267869 | $180.00 |
| 10-25 09:32 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.7300705345 | $500.00 |
| 09-14 11:45 | Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.7106728979 | $300.00 |
| 09-12 20:45 | GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.37 | $59.83 |
| 09-12 20:45 | GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.4 | $271.18 |
| 09-12 08:32 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.7427 | $89.12 |
| 09-12 08:32 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.15 | $180.00 |
| 09-12 08:32 | Will Grok 5 be released by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.8677581732 | $264.10 |
| 09-09 13:43 | LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7799999995 | $201.00 |
| 09-09 12:43 | LAPTOP FDV above $10M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.011136 | $16.70 |