IceFrosst
0xb2ca88cd9c431a0f1223029088beb0cf4f035fb0
- Realised P&L
- $1.3k
- Volume
- $1.04M
- Markets traded
- 339
- Open portfolio
- $468.44
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded339
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.034 | $165.01 | −$130.51 |
| Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026? · Yes | 0.688 | 0.220 | $158.87 | −$337.73 |
| GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.265 | 0.280 | $144.55 | +$7.86 |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.549 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.1k |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.292 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$63.27 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.101 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$35.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.3kat 0.004US government shutdown Saturday?
- +$7.8kat 0.434US government shutdown Saturday?
- +$3.5kat 0.548US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?
- +$2.2kat 0.566Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026?
- +$1.8kat 0.888Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 11:45 | Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.7106728979 | $300.00 |
| 09-12 20:45 | GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.37 | $59.83 |
| 09-12 20:45 | GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.4 | $271.18 |
| 09-12 08:32 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.7427 | $89.12 |
| 09-12 08:32 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.15 | $180.00 |
| 09-12 08:32 | Will Grok 5 be released by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.8677581732 | $264.10 |
| 09-09 13:43 | LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7799999995 | $201.00 |
| 09-09 12:43 | LAPTOP FDV above $10M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.011136 | $16.70 |
| 09-09 12:41 | LAPTOP FDV above $10M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.02492 | $24.92 |
| 09-09 12:41 | LAPTOP FDV above $10M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.029 | $14.50 |
| 09-08 21:41 | GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.2647665317 | $359.00 |
| 09-08 19:52 | Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.052 | $10.38 |
| 09-08 19:52 | Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.0515351462 | $67.00 |
| 09-07 13:35 | Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.054 | $22.68 |
| 09-07 13:31 | Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.992 | $9.92 |