PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

IceFrosst

0xb2ca88cd9c431a0f1223029088beb0cf4f035fb0

Realised P&L
$1.2k
Volume
$1.04M
Markets traded
346
Open portfolio
$853.55

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded346
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration31.9% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration46.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 30, 2026? · Yes0.7560.825$400.15+$33.38
GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027? · Yes0.2650.480$247.81+$111.12
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 6, 2026? · No0.6860.635$120.26−$9.74
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 3, 2026? · No0.8100.800$43.46−$0.54
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes0.0600.009$41.87−$253.65
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? · Yes0.5490.000$0.00−$1.1k
Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026? · Yes0.6880.000$0.00−$496.60
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? · Yes0.2920.000$0.00−$63.27
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026? · Yes0.1010.000$0.00−$35.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 16:58Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 3, 2026?BUY0.8099999948$44.00
11-01 16:58Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 6, 2026?BUY0.6864148013$130.00
10-28 16:51Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 30, 2026?BUY0.76$228.00
10-25 09:33Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?BUY0.6638263246$600.00
10-25 09:33Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 30, 2026?BUY0.6867809103$372.72
10-25 09:33Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026?BUY0.7870267869$180.00
10-25 09:32Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?BUY0.7300705345$500.00
09-14 11:45Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?BUY0.7106728979$300.00
09-12 20:45GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027?SELL0.37$59.83
09-12 20:45GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027?SELL0.4$271.18
09-12 08:32Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?SELL0.7427$89.12
09-12 08:32Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?SELL0.15$180.00
09-12 08:32Will Grok 5 be released by October 31, 2026?SELL0.8677581732$264.10
09-09 13:43LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?BUY0.7799999995$201.00
09-09 12:43LAPTOP FDV above $10M one day after launch?SELL0.011136$16.70