pikapika88
0xb2a64f28b00019b368566295962c27ec748d6865
- Realised P&L
- $255.30
- Volume
- $28.5k
- Markets traded
- 130
- Open portfolio
- $326.37
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded130
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? · Yes | 0.931 | 0.911 | $210.57 | −$4.56 |
| Will TikTok Pro - Events be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? · No | 0.970 | 0.966 | $48.27 | −$0.23 |
| Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? · No | 0.950 | 0.750 | $37.50 | −$10.00 |
| Will Muse be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? · No | 0.970 | 0.750 | $22.50 | −$6.60 |
| Will Muse be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.250 | $5.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? · Yes | 0.075 | 0.043 | $1.70 | −$1.30 |
| Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? · Yes | 0.033 | 0.026 | $0.83 | −$0.22 |
| Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? · Yes | 0.037 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.13 |
| Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? · Yes | 0.012 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$470.14at 0.744Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 18?
- +$401.98at 0.748Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 1?
- +$302.70at 0.748Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 30?
- +$287.23at 0.763Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 6?
- +$144.75at 0.719Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 19?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 04:21 | Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? | SELL | 0.0119500029 | $2.08 |
| 09-15 06:18 | Will Muse be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? | SELL | 0.62 | $12.40 |
| 09-15 05:12 | Will Muse be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? | SELL | 0.3 | $6.00 |
| 09-15 05:01 | Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? | BUY | 0.0924285714 | $6.47 |
| 09-15 04:56 | Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? | BUY | 0.0864864865 | $3.20 |
| 09-15 04:56 | Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? | BUY | 0.048 | $1.60 |
| 09-15 04:55 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 15? | SELL | 0.989 | $70.70 |
| 09-15 04:54 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 15? | BUY | 0.99 | $5.93 |
| 09-15 04:53 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 15? | BUY | 0.989 | $276.92 |
| 09-15 04:51 | Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? | BUY | 0.95 | $47.50 |
| 09-15 03:38 | Will Muse be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? | BUY | 0.35 | $7.00 |
| 09-14 07:01 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 14? | BUY | 0.971 | $145.65 |
| 09-14 06:53 | Will TikTok Pro - Events be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? | BUY | 0.97 | $48.50 |
| 09-14 06:53 | Will Muse be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? | BUY | 0.97 | $48.50 |
| 09-13 13:21 | Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? | BUY | 0.0498069337 | $1.67 |