0xb299d6bd3f4dba15fc9eca109bacb740b1ab5bbc
0xb299d6bd3f4dba15fc9eca109bacb740b1ab5bbc
- Realised P&L
- $-4.10
- Volume
- $348.36
- Markets traded
- 173
- Open portfolio
- $2.52
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded173
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration5.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · No | 0.690 | 0.865 | $1.25 | +$0.25 |
| Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of October 12 2026? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.455 | $0.73 | −$0.27 |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.225 | $0.54 | −$0.46 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.14at 0.247Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 Week of August 3 2026?
- +$2.85at 0.260US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
- +$2.67at 0.278WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on August 6?
- +$1.94at 0.340US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
- +$1.91at 0.349Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 21:12 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 11:27 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 03:23 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 9? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 19:19 | Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 10:03 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 01:51 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 14:51 | Will Corpus Christi FC win on 2026-10-07? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 14:16 | SC Internacional vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 15:57 | Will FC Supra Du Quebec win on 2026-10-07? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 11:46 | Will Guandong GZ-Power FC win on 2026-10-07? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 07:54 | Wingate & Finchley FC vs. Bedford Town FC: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 13:15 | Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 20:06 | Will CA Bucaramanga win on 2026-10-04? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 17:30 | Will El Salvador win on 2026-10-05? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 15:37 | Costa Rica vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |