NiceDuckBro
0xb26cea29491d1e6d48c69275e290bcc05be10eb0
- Realised P&L
- $2.7k
- Volume
- $1.67M
- Markets traded
- 601
- Open portfolio
- $18.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded601
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.5kat 0.845Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?
- +$3.2kat 0.734Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?
- +$3.0kat 0.599Will Russia capture Rodynske by November 30?
- +$2.9kat 0.430Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15?
- +$2.5kat 0.731Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 15:31 | Will Russia enter Preobrazhenka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9628485223 | $405.28 |
| 09-12 10:09 | Will Russia capture Novodmytrivka by September 30? | SELL | 0.9689381572 | $425.69 |
| 09-11 18:06 | Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by September 30? | BUY | 0.784 | $23.52 |
| 09-11 18:06 | Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by September 30? | BUY | 0.7884631393 | $138.29 |
| 09-09 21:33 | Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.52 | $182.94 |
| 09-09 01:31 | Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by September 30? | SELL | 0.9171678676 | $162.93 |
| 09-09 01:16 | Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by September 30? | SELL | 0.9584496127 | $285.80 |
| 09-09 00:39 | Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31? | BUY | 0.3820940404 | $378.27 |
| 09-06 19:46 | Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by October 31? | BUY | 0.96 | $1.6k |
| 09-06 19:46 | Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by October 31? | BUY | 0.96 | $96.00 |
| 09-06 14:09 | Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31? | SELL | 0.9 | $568.02 |
| 09-06 14:08 | Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.8799583587 | $376.15 |
| 09-06 14:07 | Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1119694688 | $241.61 |
| 09-05 23:37 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.7673333333 | $230.20 |
| 09-05 11:41 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.58 | $116.00 |