ToniPolster
0xb1fcbff6ff8041f3f144925b7977da4ab91551ac
- Realised P&L
- $66.00
- Volume
- $29.5k
- Markets traded
- 84
- Open portfolio
- $189.54
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded84
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration13.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$52.45at 0.405Will Bill or Hillary Clinton be held in contempt of Congress by Feb 28?
- +$48.99at 0.120Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
- +$30.37at 0.187Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
- +$21.35at 0.525U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31?
- +$19.72at 0.268Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 22:56 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election by 9%-12%? | BUY | 0.088 | $5.28 |
| 10-29 13:19 | Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.5599999919 | $25.00 |
| 10-29 12:30 | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | SELL | 0.975 | $22.15 |
| 10-27 17:03 | Will Scott Black win the 2026 North Las Vegas mayoral election? | BUY | 0.1799999856 | $2.00 |
| 10-27 17:03 | Will Scott Black win the 2026 North Las Vegas mayoral election? | BUY | 0.1759530771 | $10.00 |
| 10-27 17:00 | Will Ko Chih-en win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election? | BUY | 0.1819999965 | $5.00 |
| 10-27 14:58 | SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? | BUY | 0.3699999984 | $7.00 |
| 10-27 10:17 | Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027? | BUY | 0.6979999972 | $15.00 |
| 10-26 20:31 | Will PP win the most seats in Santa Cruz de Tenerife in the 2026 Spanish general election? | BUY | 0.5099999776 | $10.00 |
| 10-26 20:30 | Will Hochul sign the data center moratorium bill in 2026? | BUY | 0.2199999974 | $10.00 |
| 10-14 12:11 | Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.2599999993 | $7.00 |
| 10-14 10:56 | Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $15.00 |
| 10-13 08:46 | Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026? | SELL | 0.42 | $3.36 |
| 10-13 08:44 | Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026? | BUY | 0.4378109278 | $10.00 |
| 10-13 08:37 | Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling? | BUY | 0.1194124905 | $6.00 |