MikaelB
0xb1d6147a5e1ef9670ae5be265143363aaccc88d3
- Realised P&L
- $-27.80
- Volume
- $866.26
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $28.12
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration89.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)41.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.706 | 0.595 | $12.47 | −$2.32 |
| Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026? · Yes | 0.205 | 0.237 | $5.79 | +$0.79 |
| Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026? · Yes | 0.164 | 0.192 | $3.51 | +$0.51 |
| Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026? · Yes | 0.186 | 0.170 | $2.73 | −$0.27 |
| Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.047 | 0.038 | $2.45 | −$0.55 |
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026? · Yes | 0.191 | 0.074 | $1.16 | −$1.84 |
| Will CZ post 40-59 posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026? · Yes | 0.342 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Will CZ post 20-39 posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026? · No | 0.375 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$138.49at 0.389Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?
- +$6.06at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?
- +$5.42at 0.300Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?
- +$2.43at 0.240Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?
- +$1.76at 0.034Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 18:05 | Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.1906612469 | $3.00 |
| 11-01 16:08 | Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.1859999914 | $3.00 |
| 11-01 16:06 | Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026? | SELL | 0.0560788334 | $1.94 |
| 11-01 15:56 | Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.0471602769 | $3.00 |
| 11-01 15:49 | Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.1639999993 | $3.00 |
| 11-01 15:49 | Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.2051065543 | $5.00 |
| 11-01 14:39 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026? | SELL | 0.29 | $7.50 |
| 11-01 06:51 | Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.659999978 | $4.79 |
| 11-01 06:37 | Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.1377449886 | $4.77 |
| 11-01 06:35 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.229999993 | $5.95 |
| 11-01 05:44 | Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026? | SELL | 0.1642817711 | $11.43 |
| 10-31 20:27 | Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299999876 | $10.00 |
| 10-31 20:13 | Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.1862553463 | $5.00 |
| 10-31 20:10 | Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.1889999959 | $3.33 |
| 10-31 20:09 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026? | SELL | 0.2926710171 | $13.01 |