kevinbolcic
0xb184a4fef7a30886b60a57c10f2b995b0429d306
- Realised P&L
- $1.20
- Volume
- $395.00
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $48.80
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration79.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration63.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.310 | $31.05 | −$0.95 |
| Will Jynxzi, Ron, and Los have between 180 and 209 Minecraft deaths during the marathon? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.145 | $7.25 | −$0.75 |
| Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.290 | $5.80 | +$0.00 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.235 | $4.70 | −$1.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.95at 0.810US forces enter Iran by March 31?
- +$0.25at 0.240Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 22:54 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? | SELL | 0.25 | $25.00 |