0xb11d09dc7589a01c770abdf4134df6c2f741a6c5
- Realised P&L
- not known
- Volume
- not known
- Markets traded
- 92
- Open portfolio
- $2.99
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- Not knownEdge per dollar—
- No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
- ClearMarkets traded92
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.056 | $1.59 | −$2.41 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? · Yes | 0.125 | 0.018 | $1.40 | −$8.60 |
| Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? · No | 0.126 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Will Vinson Watkins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.42 |
| Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month? · No | 0.301 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.88at 0.765Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?
- +$13.15at 0.940Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?
- +$10.75at 0.811Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$7.62at 0.014Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$6.86at 0.490Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-07 09:24 | Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? | BUY | 0.1258064482 | $30.00 |
| 07-26 03:22 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | SELL | 0.54 | $12.85 |
| 07-15 12:49 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | SELL | 0.2164678475 | $5.62 |
| 06-16 07:10 | Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend? | SELL | 0.1022326951 | $2.78 |
| 05-31 08:50 | Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend? | SELL | 0.1539173323 | $7.71 |
| 05-06 10:47 | Will Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026? | SELL | 0.971 | $14.04 |
| 05-05 14:06 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.3849999908 | $10.00 |
| 04-27 10:22 | Will Clavicular cry on stream by May 1, 2026 | BUY | 0.8299999967 | $5.00 |
| 04-27 10:21 | Will Clavicular cry on stream by May 1, 2026 | BUY | 0.8299999967 | $5.00 |
| 04-26 05:47 | Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026? | BUY | 0.1399999727 | $4.00 |
| 04-25 14:30 | Will Trump dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25? | BUY | 0.7099998694 | $4.86 |
| 04-25 14:17 | Will Trump dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25? | BUY | 0.699999993 | $9.70 |
| 04-24 23:33 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | SELL | 0.89 | $9.45 |
| 04-24 23:33 | Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | SELL | 0.4 | $9.28 |
| 04-22 11:10 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY | 0.8499999906 | $9.03 |