PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x69eC6D332e485a56779D3E5E6084F8343674e278-1768404727853

0xb1117815464545247ee884c8113c7b83d117a175

Realised P&L
$-147.10
Volume
$1.4k
Markets traded
17
Open portfolio
$43.01

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-10.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded17
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
CautionProfit concentration43.0% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample6 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)83.3%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration77.1% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? · No0.4600.305$33.15−$16.85
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.3600.355$9.86−$0.14
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? · Yes0.5900.000$0.00−$20.00
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? · Yes0.2540.000$0.00−$25.00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · No0.5100.000$0.00−$20.00
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? · Yes0.2600.000$0.00−$10.00
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? · No0.2640.000$0.00−$100.00
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026? · No0.6500.000$0.00−$20.00
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? · No0.6400.000$0.00−$50.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET · Up0.5000.000$0.00−$5.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET · Up0.5010.000$0.00−$0.92

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-06 13:51Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?BUY0.3599999971$10.00
10-06 13:47Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?BUY0.4599999965$50.00
10-03 08:03Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?BUY0.7899999997$100.00
07-24 12:51Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.7559999993$93.14
07-24 12:48Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?BUY0.6499999935$20.00
07-24 12:47Netanyahu out by end of 2026?SELL0.57$24.25
06-22 11:10Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?BUY0.7299999942$15.00
06-14 09:57Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?BUY0.2599999839$10.00
06-14 09:56Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?BUY0.2899999907$20.00
06-14 09:53Netanyahu out by end of 2026?BUY0.4699999929$20.00
06-14 09:49US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY0.5099999911$20.00
06-09 20:40Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-8:00PM ETSELL0.46$22.11
06-09 20:40Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-8:00PM ETBUY0.5009823161$25.00
06-09 11:27Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?BUY0.5899999894$20.00
06-09 11:18Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?BUY0.2641016099$100.00