0x69eC6D332e485a56779D3E5E6084F8343674e278-1768404727853
0xb1117815464545247ee884c8113c7b83d117a175
- Realised P&L
- $-147.10
- Volume
- $1.4k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $43.01
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-10.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration43.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)83.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration77.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? · No | 0.460 | 0.305 | $33.15 | −$16.85 |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.355 | $9.86 | −$0.14 |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? · Yes | 0.254 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? · No | 0.264 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026? · No | 0.650 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.640 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET · Up | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET · Up | 0.501 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.92 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$48.54at 0.296Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
- +$28.92at 0.765Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$25.53at 0.798Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
- +$5.55at 0.730Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
- +$4.25at 0.470Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 13:51 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.3599999971 | $10.00 |
| 10-06 13:47 | Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.4599999965 | $50.00 |
| 10-03 08:03 | Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.7899999997 | $100.00 |
| 07-24 12:51 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7559999993 | $93.14 |
| 07-24 12:48 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.6499999935 | $20.00 |
| 07-24 12:47 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.57 | $24.25 |
| 06-22 11:10 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY | 0.7299999942 | $15.00 |
| 06-14 09:57 | Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | BUY | 0.2599999839 | $10.00 |
| 06-14 09:56 | Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | BUY | 0.2899999907 | $20.00 |
| 06-14 09:53 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.4699999929 | $20.00 |
| 06-14 09:49 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5099999911 | $20.00 |
| 06-09 20:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET | SELL | 0.46 | $22.11 |
| 06-09 20:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET | BUY | 0.5009823161 | $25.00 |
| 06-09 11:27 | Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | BUY | 0.5899999894 | $20.00 |
| 06-09 11:18 | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.2641016099 | $100.00 |