PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Parz1vaI

0xb10047d6a254b2ebb306d7a7d13bf59171ab6461

Realised P&L
$798.7k
Volume
$70.21M
Markets traded
5,911
Open portfolio
$365.3k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
CautionMarkets traded5,911
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
BlockerProfit concentration67.0% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration12.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Iran leadership change by December 31? · No0.8260.855$44.0k+$1.5k
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · No0.9090.889$32.9k$719.73
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? · No0.8590.996$28.1k+$3.8k
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? · No0.9820.988$24.9k+$150.99
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? · No0.7770.945$20.0k+$3.5k
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027? · Yes0.6420.595$16.6k$1.3k
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes0.2450.212$14.5k$2.3k
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? · No0.7850.825$12.4k+$594.22
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No0.9580.964$12.2k+$67.23
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.8200.835$11.5k+$206.64
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? · No0.8940.935$10.7k+$466.98
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? · No0.6870.695$10.7k+$117.79
US strike on Cuba by December 31? · No0.8030.855$10.4k+$636.99
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.9630.956$8.9k$66.80
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? · No0.8170.810$8.9k$76.22

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-17 01:38Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2026?BUY0.86$34.40
09-17 01:21Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?BUY0.964$5.15
09-17 01:16Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?BUY0.9582823509$10.0k
09-17 01:15Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?SELL0.6738795957$1.5k
09-16 16:28Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.88$9.8k
09-15 22:22Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?BUY0.91$456.82
09-15 22:14OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?BUY0.8$1.2k
09-15 22:06Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?BUY0.7838123135$1.9k
09-15 16:42Will Eric Trump post about $LAPTOP by September 30?BUY0.92$46.71
09-15 16:41Will Eric Trump post about $LAPTOP by September 30?BUY0.9061743893$866.95
09-15 16:36Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?BUY0.88$140.80
09-15 16:34Gemini 4.0 released by September 15, 2026?BUY0.9957352941$6.8k
09-15 16:31Will AfD win the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election by a margin of 5-10%?BUY0.2762396007$166.02
09-15 16:31Will AfD win the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election by a margin of 2-5%?BUY0.3268219178$119.29
09-15 16:28Sam Altman signs the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30?BUY0.92$377.19