0xb09e50B5d98cDC105c50836394423B6f53FF8211-1767505311167
0xb09e50b5d98cdc105c50836394423b6f53ff8211
- Realised P&L
- $162.36
- Volume
- $8.6k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $2.41
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration70.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be exactly 4 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.004 | $2.41 | −$22.59 |
| Will PNC Financial Services (PNC) beat quarterly earnings? · No | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.85 |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 15? · Down | 0.180 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.00 |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.058 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.80 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.40 |
| Will Bank of America (BAC) beat quarterly earnings? · No | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? · No | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) beat quarterly earnings? · No | 0.012 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$22.23 |
| US x Venezuela ceasefire by January 31? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$216.90at 0.036Will JPMorgan Chase (JPM) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$78.33at 0.060US bank failure by January 31?
- +$13.00at 0.200US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$-10.00at 0.390Maduro mugshot released by Monday?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-18 08:50 | US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.46 | $23.00 |
| 01-15 06:59 | Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.41 |
| 01-14 08:51 | Will Bank of America (BAC) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.1299999951 | $20.00 |
| 01-04 07:15 | Will there be exactly 4 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? | BUY | 0.0363351093 | $25.00 |
| 01-04 07:11 | Will JPMorgan Chase (JPM) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.04 | $5.00 |
| 01-04 07:05 | US x Venezuela ceasefire by January 31? | BUY | 0.1 | $10.00 |
| 01-04 06:03 | No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.1099999913 | $10.00 |
| 01-04 06:01 | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.004 | $20.00 |
| 01-04 05:58 | Maduro mugshot released by Monday? | BUY | 0.389999986 | $10.00 |
| 01-04 05:55 | US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $10.00 |
| 01-04 05:54 | US bank failure by January 31? | BUY | 0.059999989 | $5.00 |