Skybark
0xb0719da9d806d672e7fa665141d6f8952d0a15cb
- Realised P&L
- $-166.38
- Volume
- $199.4k
- Markets traded
- 138
- Open portfolio
- $3.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded138
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration46.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.411 | 0.512 | $1.5k | +$304.97 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.885 | 0.954 | $646.78 | +$46.78 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.271 | 0.153 | $460.49 | −$352.35 |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.840 | 0.920 | $368.00 | +$32.00 |
| Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.935 | $93.50 | −$0.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$509.23at 0.744Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?
- +$208.79at 0.275Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?
- +$196.57at 0.911Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025?
- +$185.77at 0.903Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in November?
- +$183.46at 0.920Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-09 02:59 | Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $94.00 |
| 08-09 02:34 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $336.00 |
| 08-09 02:32 | Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9614086304 | $373.85 |
| 07-19 02:48 | Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9706330423 | $463.60 |
| 07-16 18:13 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.268 | $268.00 |
| 07-16 18:13 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.4176166644 | $150.61 |
| 07-13 11:00 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.279 | $81.47 |
| 07-11 23:30 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.262 | $2.08 |
| 07-11 23:30 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.41 | $123.00 |
| 07-06 00:23 | Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.87 | $174.00 |
| 07-03 17:36 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.253 | $50.60 |
| 07-03 17:35 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.393 | $78.60 |
| 07-03 17:32 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.253 | $75.90 |
| 07-03 17:32 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.394 | $110.32 |
| 07-03 17:27 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.606 | $6.06 |