beili
0xaff12a4b5df17176599ebfe074b472f3f515c92f
- Realised P&L
- $114.75
- Volume
- $94.8k
- Markets traded
- 57
- Open portfolio
- $8.64
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded57
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No | 0.962 | 0.990 | $3.47 | +$0.10 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No | 0.939 | 0.981 | $2.82 | +$0.12 |
| Will USD/CAD hit 1.70 (High) in 2026? · No | 0.950 | 0.971 | $2.35 | +$0.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$42.12at 0.991Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 24?
- +$33.08at 0.991Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 28?
- +$16.48at 0.996Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 30?
- +$12.20at 0.996Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30?
- +$10.90at 0.997Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 25?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 03:20 | China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.93 | $3.13 |
| 08-18 08:58 | New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? | SELL | 0.95 | $2.66 |
| 07-27 23:42 | Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? | SELL | 0.66 | $1.74 |
| 07-02 10:08 | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL | 0.999 | $4.22 |
| 06-19 02:15 | Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.973 | $2.98 |
| 06-19 02:15 | EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31? | SELL | 0.82 | $3.18 |
| 06-19 02:15 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.731 | $0.59 |
| 06-19 02:15 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.712 | $3.82 |
| 05-14 16:29 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.9389997489 | $2.70 |
| 04-30 06:33 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? | BUY | 0.996 | $1.5k |
| 04-30 06:13 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? | BUY | 0.995 | $195.50 |
| 04-28 02:42 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 28? | BUY | 0.989 | $936.09 |
| 04-28 02:39 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 28? | BUY | 0.988 | $44.42 |
| 04-28 01:29 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 28? | BUY | 0.993 | $595.20 |
| 04-27 23:49 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 28? | BUY | 0.991 | $2.5k |