Connorwz
0xafde5b676d1771a7c645a40591d52b0d6ec5d98e
- Realised P&L
- $-92.96
- Volume
- $4.8k
- Markets traded
- 454
- Open portfolio
- $88.25
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded454
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base FDV above $1B one day after launch? · No | 0.400 | 0.465 | $23.25 | +$3.25 |
| Arc FDV above $2B one day after launch? · No | 0.490 | 0.445 | $22.25 | −$2.25 |
| Arc FDV above $1B one day after launch? · No | 0.380 | 0.380 | $19.00 | +$0.00 |
| Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? · No | 0.279 | 0.140 | $7.70 | −$7.65 |
| Unit FDV above $600M one day after launch? · No | 0.530 | 0.875 | $4.38 | +$1.73 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? · No | 0.370 | 0.545 | $2.73 | +$0.88 |
| Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? · No | 0.380 | 0.485 | $2.42 | +$0.53 |
| Base FDV above $500M one day after launch? · No | 0.380 | 0.430 | $2.15 | +$0.25 |
| Arc FDV above $800M one day after launch? · No | 0.350 | 0.315 | $1.57 | −$0.17 |
| Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch? · No | 0.290 | 0.315 | $1.57 | +$0.13 |
| Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? · No | 0.540 | 0.245 | $1.23 | −$1.48 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.15at 0.323Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?
- +$8.15at 0.380Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?
- +$6.79at 0.572Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on August 6?
- +$6.45at 0.355Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?
- +$6.13at 0.387Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-11 11:24 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on August 11? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 08-11 10:54 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on August 11? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 08-11 10:50 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 11? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 08-11 10:24 | Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on August 11? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 08-11 09:52 | Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on August 11? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 08-11 08:02 | Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on August 11? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 08-11 02:02 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on August 11? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 08-11 02:02 | Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on August 11? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 08-11 01:32 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on August 11? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 08-11 01:32 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on August 11? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 08-11 01:02 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on August 11? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 08-11 01:00 | Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on August 11? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 08-11 00:32 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or below on August 11? | BUY | 0.999 | $7.88 |
| 08-10 10:24 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on August 10? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 08-10 09:24 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on August 10? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.99 |