0xafa910bbd3230f2b03dd446d58108a5ecb261756
- Realised P&L
- $-325.93
- Volume
- $27.1k
- Markets traded
- 36
- Open portfolio
- $163.29
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded36
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample28 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.165 | $77.08 | −$39.71 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.085 | 0.105 | $24.70 | +$4.70 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.159 | 0.162 | $20.31 | +$0.31 |
| Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.150 | $17.65 | −$2.35 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · Yes | 0.209 | 0.040 | $7.57 | −$32.43 |
| Fannie Mae IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.184 | 0.065 | $7.06 | −$12.94 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · Yes | 0.165 | 0.029 | $6.92 | −$33.08 |
| Databricks IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.377 | 0.037 | $1.99 | −$18.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$99.78at 0.176Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?
- +$61.36at 0.140Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?
- +$48.33at 0.383Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?
- +$25.93at 0.066Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?
- +$17.37at 0.531Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 06:05 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.25 | $116.79 |
| 07-25 13:17 | Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? | SELL | 0.6280898481 | $142.61 |
| 03-25 21:11 | Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.1499999971 | $40.91 |
| 03-25 21:10 | 5kt meteor strike in 2026? | SELL | 0.5968822638 | $35.44 |
| 03-25 21:10 | Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.1499999931 | $17.51 |
| 03-16 14:04 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.0351808303 | $20.00 |
| 03-16 14:04 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | BUY | 0.5429999982 | $43.71 |
| 03-16 07:02 | Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.2399999918 | $20.00 |
| 03-04 20:55 | Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.5599999969 | $50.00 |
| 03-04 20:54 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.39 | $39.00 |
| 02-26 13:46 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $20.00 |
| 02-20 13:36 | Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? | SELL | 0.004 | $20.00 |
| 02-18 21:52 | Databricks IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.3773584906 | $20.00 |
| 02-18 21:50 | Fannie Mae IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.1840550168 | $20.00 |
| 02-18 21:45 | SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.8699999997 | $78.00 |