Blase3
0xaf9ad7c113df7502932408cd7ebaa0ed42baf393
- Realised P&L
- $-1.6k
- Volume
- $25.6k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $486.58
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration41.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? · Yes | 0.377 | 0.135 | $250.46 | −$449.54 |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · Yes | 0.259 | 0.065 | $236.12 | −$703.22 |
| US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.379 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$441.97 |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31? · Yes | 0.075 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? · Yes | 0.055 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$499.99 |
| Bulls vs. Pistons · Bulls | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Spread: Miami (-3.5) · Ole Miss | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$639.35at 0.610US forces enter Iran by December 31?
- +$332.56at 0.180US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$301.61at 0.386Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$266.72at 0.789Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
- +$-50.00at 0.044US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-28 02:30 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999958 | $39.34 |
| 05-02 12:15 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999998 | $900.00 |
| 05-02 12:14 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | BUY | 0.3773049644 | $700.00 |
| 04-02 02:02 | US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3787915555 | $441.97 |
| 03-15 20:37 | Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.0551306873 | $500.00 |
| 03-14 19:55 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31? | BUY | 0.075175994 | $200.00 |
| 03-05 20:46 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.6099999999 | $1000.00 |
| 03-01 13:39 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | SELL | 0.998 | $492.01 |
| 02-28 14:36 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | BUY | 0.3862170385 | $190.40 |
| 02-28 13:36 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $500.00 |
| 02-28 13:34 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.7791566328 | $500.00 |
| 02-25 00:51 | Will Trump say "Gold Card" or "Trump card" during the 2026 State of the Union address? | BUY | 0.4686969054 | $800.00 |
| 02-22 15:35 | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.1799999982 | $73.00 |
| 02-21 18:10 | US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.0441006718 | $50.00 |
| 01-07 18:39 | Spread: Miami (-3.5) | BUY | 0.5199999938 | $20.00 |