PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Kvaerkeman

0xaf4bc132fc098daa42beec6c47454d751da6d653

Realised P&L
$-56.22
Volume
$12.3k
Markets traded
46
Open portfolio
$886.81

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded46
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration42.2% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample30 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration33.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · No0.9710.979$293.70+$2.50
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 2, 2026? · Yes0.9700.944$113.22−$3.18
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 4, 2026? · Yes0.9360.950$105.39+$1.43
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? · No0.8700.965$96.45+$9.45
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes0.4330.282$84.60−$45.20
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2400.405$81.00+$33.00
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes0.1850.195$78.00+$4.00
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0700.125$25.00+$11.00
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · Yes0.0140.013$9.45−$0.35
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 by December 31, 2025? · No0.2300.000$0.00−$29.55
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August? · Yes0.1960.000$0.00−$19.62
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? · Yes0.4200.000$0.00−$59.01
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-18? · Yes0.5190.000$0.00−$100.00
US forces enter Iran by March 31? · Yes0.0760.000$0.00−$30.00
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? · Yes0.0340.000$0.00−$30.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-09 09:15Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4?SELL0.6134223602$7.90
10-09 09:15Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4?SELL0.625$58.72
10-09 07:19Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?SELL0.18$36.00
10-09 07:13Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4?SELL0.788$16.55
10-06 20:46Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4?BUY0.95$103.55
10-06 20:46Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4?BUY0.94$5.95
10-06 20:45Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4?BUY0.92$11.50
10-06 17:32Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?BUY0.17$34.00
10-06 17:29Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 4, 2026?BUY0.941$38.58
10-06 17:29Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 4, 2026?BUY0.934$65.38
10-06 17:19Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 2, 2026?BUY0.97$116.40
10-06 11:04Israel military action against Lebanon on October 4?SELL0.999$351.61
10-06 05:34Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?BUY0.972$56.86
10-06 05:34Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?BUY0.971$30.20
10-06 05:34Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?BUY0.969$4.84