vamnizar
0xaf4635074c8f9966ff44f2497183b53fc0578c1d
- Realised P&L
- $41.8k
- Volume
- $11.73M
- Markets traded
- 3,331
- Open portfolio
- $5.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded3,331
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration22.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.7kat 0.111Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?
- +$6.7kat 0.071Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?
- +$2.8kat 0.251Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in March 2026?
- +$2.8kat 0.326Will Elon tweet between 900 and 949 times September 1–30?
- +$2.7kat 0.464Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 09:47 | Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets in October 2026? | SELL | 0.004 | $0.40 |
| 09-17 09:47 | Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets in October 2026? | SELL | 0.0045268139 | $0.14 |
| 09-15 08:20 | Will Elon tweet 1120-1159 times in September 2026? | BUY | 0.993 | $99.30 |
| 09-15 08:16 | Will Elon Musk post 740-759 tweets in October 2026? | BUY | 0.0119615385 | $0.31 |
| 09-14 23:30 | Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: Linke Over/Under 11%? | BUY | 0.26 | $20.80 |
| 09-14 22:52 | Will FW win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.9930620955 | $105.87 |
| 09-14 22:51 | Will BSW win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.99 | $198.00 |
| 09-14 22:51 | Will FW win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.994275798 | $358.53 |
| 09-14 22:39 | Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets in October 2026? | BUY | 0.003 | $0.02 |
| 09-13 18:24 | Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets in October 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $0.08 |
| 09-12 21:32 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.16 | $32.00 |
| 09-09 17:58 | Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.0586470588 | $4.98 |
| 09-09 17:58 | Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.058 | $7.19 |
| 09-09 12:33 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.21 | $10.50 |
| 09-08 19:33 | Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $4.34 |