PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

Rast

0xaf33638521d56c67896e827716926199c3b21e17

Realised P&L
$-555.86
Volume
$27.1k
Markets traded
248
Open portfolio
$23.09

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded248
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration12.7% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration58.7% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31? · No0.5100.770$13.56+$4.58
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? · Yes0.0700.043$4.25−$2.75
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2000.060$3.00−$7.00
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? · Yes0.5700.065$2.27−$17.68
Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.1300.000$0.00−$7.80
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · No0.6200.000$0.00−$18.60
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.1000.000$0.00−$10.00
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.0800.000$0.00−$4.80
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · No0.6500.000$0.00−$13.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-26 18:06Will Angel City FC vs. Racing Louisville FC end in a draw?BUY0.2199999593$4.00
07-26 06:17Will Tigres de la UANL vs. Atlético San Luis end in a draw?SELL0.999$19.98
07-25 08:58Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?SELL0.61$18.30
07-25 08:56Will Tigres de la UANL vs. Atlético San Luis end in a draw?BUY0.19$3.80
07-25 08:55Will CD Guadalajara vs. FC Juárez end in a draw?BUY0.19$3.80
07-25 08:55Will CA River Plate vs. CA Barracas Central end in a draw?BUY0.21$4.20
07-24 11:18Will a Chinese company have one of the top 5 AI models by December 31?SELL0.49$9.80
07-24 11:17Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?BUY0.62$18.60
07-24 11:12Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30, 2026?BUY0.08$4.80
07-23 19:41Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?SELL0.011$0.34
07-21 14:13Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 23?SELL0.26$7.54
07-21 13:27Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg?SELL0.43$14.19
07-21 13:19Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2027?SELL0.54$16.74
07-21 13:19Will Frank Chikane be the next mayor of Johannesburg?SELL0.488$11.22
07-21 12:34Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?BUY0.38$4.94