Rast
0xaf33638521d56c67896e827716926199c3b21e17
- Realised P&L
- $-528.94
- Volume
- $27.1k
- Markets traded
- 248
- Open portfolio
- $32.78
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded248
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31? · No | 0.510 | 0.635 | $11.18 | +$2.20 |
| Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.205 | $10.25 | +$0.25 |
| Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.035 | $3.50 | −$3.50 |
| Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.095 | $3.33 | −$16.63 |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.021 | $2.15 | −$7.85 |
| Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.021 | $1.23 | −$3.57 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.019 | $1.14 | −$6.66 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · No | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.60 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · No | 0.650 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$64.43at 0.195Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?
- +$49.74at 0.263Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?
- +$41.44at 0.260Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?
- +$26.72at 0.360Will "Toy Story 5" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 39m?
- +$21.19at 0.195UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-26 18:06 | Will Angel City FC vs. Racing Louisville FC end in a draw? | BUY | 0.2199999593 | $4.00 |
| 07-26 06:17 | Will Tigres de la UANL vs. Atlético San Luis end in a draw? | SELL | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 07-25 08:58 | Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? | SELL | 0.61 | $18.30 |
| 07-25 08:56 | Will Tigres de la UANL vs. Atlético San Luis end in a draw? | BUY | 0.19 | $3.80 |
| 07-25 08:55 | Will CD Guadalajara vs. FC Juárez end in a draw? | BUY | 0.19 | $3.80 |
| 07-25 08:55 | Will CA River Plate vs. CA Barracas Central end in a draw? | BUY | 0.21 | $4.20 |
| 07-24 11:18 | Will a Chinese company have one of the top 5 AI models by December 31? | SELL | 0.49 | $9.80 |
| 07-24 11:17 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.62 | $18.60 |
| 07-24 11:12 | Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $4.80 |
| 07-23 19:41 | Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.011 | $0.34 |
| 07-21 14:13 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 23? | SELL | 0.26 | $7.54 |
| 07-21 13:27 | Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg? | SELL | 0.43 | $14.19 |
| 07-21 13:19 | Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.54 | $16.74 |
| 07-21 13:19 | Will Frank Chikane be the next mayor of Johannesburg? | SELL | 0.488 | $11.22 |
| 07-21 12:34 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting? | BUY | 0.38 | $4.94 |