PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

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0xaf2383b66194112d57ac196b00ab25f78c17aa95

Realised P&L
$19.5k
Volume
$5.63M
Markets traded
731
Open portfolio
$4.3k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded731
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration33.4% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration44.0% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · Yes0.7960.125$1.9k−$10.1k
Will GameStop acquire eBay? · No0.8460.935$935.00+$89.00
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? · Yes0.6490.080$615.84−$4.4k
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? · Yes0.3000.095$238.02−$514.46
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? · No0.3900.825$164.41+$86.69
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? · No0.8200.715$143.00−$21.00
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027? · No0.9100.932$93.20+$2.20
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? · No0.5400.855$85.50+$31.50
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? · No0.6400.760$63.33+$10.00
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.5400.065$39.00−$285.00
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? · Yes0.5300.060$6.00−$47.00
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? · Yes0.1800.035$3.55−$14.45
Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026? · No0.8620.695$0.77−$0.19
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? · Yes0.6130.000$0.00−$368.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-09 20:52US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?SELL0.003$1.51
07-09 20:51US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?BUY0.973$15.29
07-08 13:57Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?BUY0.96$3.8k
07-08 13:56Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?SELL0.99$2.1k
07-05 18:03Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?BUY0.9$900.00
07-05 18:03Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?SELL0.21$1.38
07-05 18:03Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?SELL0.1$10.00
07-05 15:07Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?BUY0.972$207.04
07-05 14:52Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?SELL0.998$5.1k
07-02 05:20Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by July 31?BUY0.87$3.45
07-02 02:06Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?BUY0.96$980.29
07-01 23:27Israel closes its airspace by July 31?BUY0.92$78.63
07-01 23:14Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?BUY0.0098234998$48.35
07-01 22:35Iran full airspace closure by August 31?BUY0.3884442424$606.73
07-01 09:01US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?BUY0.1468393517$309.86