apple-pi
0xaf2383b66194112d57ac196b00ab25f78c17aa95
- Realised P&L
- $19.5k
- Volume
- $5.63M
- Markets traded
- 731
- Open portfolio
- $4.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded731
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$18.6kat 0.418Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
- +$7.3kat 0.401Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?
- +$5.2kat 0.193Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be ≥2.7%?
- +$4.5kat 0.586U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?
- +$4.1kat 0.695US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-09 20:52 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? | SELL | 0.003 | $1.51 |
| 07-09 20:51 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.973 | $15.29 |
| 07-08 13:57 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.96 | $3.8k |
| 07-08 13:56 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | SELL | 0.99 | $2.1k |
| 07-05 18:03 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? | BUY | 0.9 | $900.00 |
| 07-05 18:03 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? | SELL | 0.21 | $1.38 |
| 07-05 18:03 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? | SELL | 0.1 | $10.00 |
| 07-05 15:07 | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.972 | $207.04 |
| 07-05 14:52 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.998 | $5.1k |
| 07-02 05:20 | Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by July 31? | BUY | 0.87 | $3.45 |
| 07-02 02:06 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15? | BUY | 0.96 | $980.29 |
| 07-01 23:27 | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | BUY | 0.92 | $78.63 |
| 07-01 23:14 | Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | BUY | 0.0098234998 | $48.35 |
| 07-01 22:35 | Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | BUY | 0.3884442424 | $606.73 |
| 07-01 09:01 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.1468393517 | $309.86 |