92586o
0xaee1e14f9c40535bfd6f287a517f8327a0d3bc78
- Realised P&L
- $-634.67
- Volume
- $117.0k
- Markets traded
- 4
- Open portfolio
- $3.2k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded4
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration76.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.135 | $3.2k | −$595.45 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.89at 0.933Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
- +$3.08at 0.014Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
- +$-52.19at 0.110Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-05 17:41 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.111 | $353.15 |
| 03-02 07:18 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.108 | $0.72 |
| 03-02 07:18 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.108 | $131.76 |
| 03-02 06:21 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.108 | $434.27 |
| 02-28 07:39 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.099 | $17.69 |
| 02-14 22:32 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $14.72 |
| 02-14 22:29 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $182.49 |
| 02-14 22:28 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $1.4k |
| 02-14 22:28 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $1.0k |
| 02-14 22:26 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $953.92 |
| 02-14 22:23 | Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.017 | $58.87 |