werwdswf
0xaece2abffd7adb588721125c58f2f8d5a07a39d9
- Realised P&L
- $225.49
- Volume
- $1.8k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $692.36
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar12.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration52.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)87.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · No | 0.440 | 0.695 | $435.76 | +$159.88 |
| Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.895 | $116.35 | +$48.75 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.828 | 0.964 | $62.63 | +$8.83 |
| Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes | 0.729 | 0.911 | $41.02 | +$8.21 |
| Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027? · No | 0.620 | 0.915 | $36.60 | +$11.80 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? · No | 0.291 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.54 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.126 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.70 |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? · Yes | 0.302 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$27.21 |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? · No | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$33.55 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$176.00at 0.120MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
- +$43.05at 0.357Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?
- +$35.01at 0.611Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
- +$29.57at 0.155Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$27.06at 0.227Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-09 14:12 | Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027? | BUY | 0.62 | $24.80 |
| 08-16 04:05 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.55 | $33.55 |
| 07-25 07:05 | Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | BUY | 0.729 | $32.80 |
| 06-20 13:34 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.126 | $9.70 |
| 05-21 15:23 | Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.22 | $7.70 |
| 04-27 15:26 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.155 | $5.42 |
| 04-08 13:18 | Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.290832 | $14.54 |
| 04-05 13:29 | Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.611 | $54.99 |
| 03-26 00:32 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? | BUY | 0.3023333333 | $27.21 |
| 03-21 02:48 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $24.00 |
| 03-15 11:13 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | BUY | 0.3574028358 | $23.95 |
| 03-15 11:04 | Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | BUY | 0.52 | $67.60 |
| 03-07 03:28 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | BUY | 0.8 | $17.60 |
| 03-07 03:23 | Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.44 | $275.88 |
| 02-27 02:55 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.83 | $41.50 |