Mandatory-Field
0xae9db5885d867155367fff6c909e7d67a9af4378
- Realised P&L
- $-6.75
- Volume
- $1.0k
- Markets traded
- 48
- Open portfolio
- $10.07
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded48
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample42 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.048 | 0.124 | $3.73 | +$2.29 |
| Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? · Yes | 0.353 | 0.045 | $1.68 | −$11.47 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.165 | 0.122 | $1.23 | −$0.42 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.094 | 0.100 | $1.09 | +$0.06 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.035 | $1.01 | −$3.99 |
| Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.065 | $0.78 | −$0.90 |
| US recession by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.055 | $0.55 | −$2.65 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.70at 0.130Fed rate hike in 2026?
- +$7.50at 0.380Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?
- +$6.17at 0.270Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?
- +$4.66at 0.713Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?
- +$4.36at 0.563Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-27 01:51 | Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.008 | $0.80 |
| 04-27 01:49 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.1699999759 | $5.00 |
| 04-13 01:18 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL | 0.989 | $4.95 |
| 04-09 20:50 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY | 0.71 | $3.55 |
| 04-09 20:46 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.094 | $1.03 |
| 04-04 02:26 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL | 0.83 | $4.15 |
| 04-04 02:25 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | SELL | 0.89 | $0.51 |
| 04-01 12:06 | Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? | BUY | 0.26 | $2.11 |
| 04-01 12:03 | Will Trump say "Fake News" during Address to the Nation? | BUY | 0.23 | $2.30 |
| 04-01 12:03 | Will Trump say "Kharg" or "Island" during Address to the Nation? | BUY | 0.31 | $3.10 |
| 04-01 12:02 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.57 | $2.85 |
| 03-28 15:19 | US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? | SELL | 0.24 | $2.40 |
| 03-28 15:18 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL | 0.26 | $2.60 |
| 03-28 04:16 | Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026? | SELL | 0.8 | $4.00 |
| 03-23 15:51 | US recession by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $3.20 |