ProfitMuhammedPBUH
0xae7c98235d5dc797edfa3d3af2e0334238a4487e
- Realised P&L
- $-20.5k
- Volume
- $7.06M
- Markets traded
- 866
- Open portfolio
- $4.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded866
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$38.9kat 0.898Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$27.4kat 0.208US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
- +$11.9kat 0.087Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation?
- +$10.9kat 0.821Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
- +$8.5kat 0.579Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 17:15 | Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.005 | $1.00 |
| 08-30 20:27 | Will Iran target Iraq by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.2899999853 | $12.00 |
| 08-30 20:27 | Will Iran target Iraq by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.440999994 | $10.00 |
| 08-30 20:26 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | SELL | 0.0010138075 | $4.06 |
| 08-30 20:26 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | BUY | 0.0183114564 | $34.00 |
| 08-30 20:25 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.1799999995 | $237.00 |
| 08-26 15:44 | Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.9972161619 | $458.00 |
| 08-19 23:49 | Israel military action against Syria by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $66.00 |
| 08-19 02:16 | US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by August 31? | BUY | 0.7262747471 | $150.04 |
| 08-19 02:16 | Tariff increase on Canada in effect by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6964285272 | $9.00 |
| 08-06 14:00 | Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.0725881634 | $90.00 |
| 08-05 19:40 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.34 | $170.00 |
| 08-05 19:29 | Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.0058503182 | $10.00 |
| 08-05 19:29 | Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.0024694069 | $55.00 |
| 08-05 19:26 | Will Meta have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.0047664823 | $0.56 |