PolyBot

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Traders

ProfitMuhammedPBUH

0xae7c98235d5dc797edfa3d3af2e0334238a4487e

Realised P&L
$-20.5k
Volume
$7.06M
Markets traded
866
Open portfolio
$4.2k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded866
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration26.0% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration51.6% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Iran leadership change by December 31? · Yes0.5260.145$2.2k$5.7k
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes0.1820.065$1.3k$2.3k
US strike on Mexico by December 31? · Yes0.2900.075$185.90$534.09
Anthropic IPO before 2027? · Yes0.4780.850$151.56+$66.34
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · Yes0.1200.033$104.70$281.88
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? · No0.1800.075$98.75$138.25
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? · Yes0.0210.048$72.26+$40.31
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes0.1300.095$36.82$13.57
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.9070.230$32.71$96.29
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? · No0.7270.347$21.02$22.98
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? · Yes0.0180.009$17.64$16.36
Will Sergey Brin be 3rd richest person on December 31? · Yes0.0900.440$15.40+$12.25
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by December 31, 2026? · No0.6960.880$11.37+$2.37
Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027? · Yes0.3230.240$4.38$1.51
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · Yes0.0890.025$2.87$7.13

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-16 17:15Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?BUY0.005$1.00
08-30 20:27Will Iran target Iraq by September 15, 2026?BUY0.2899999853$12.00
08-30 20:27Will Iran target Iraq by August 31, 2026?BUY0.440999994$10.00
08-30 20:26Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?SELL0.0010138075$4.06
08-30 20:26Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?BUY0.0183114564$34.00
08-30 20:25Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?BUY0.1799999995$237.00
08-26 15:44Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026?BUY0.9972161619$458.00
08-19 23:49Israel military action against Syria by September 30, 2026?BUY0.89$66.00
08-19 02:16US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by August 31?BUY0.7262747471$150.04
08-19 02:16Tariff increase on Canada in effect by December 31, 2026?BUY0.6964285272$9.00
08-06 14:00Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?BUY0.0725881634$90.00
08-05 19:40US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?BUY0.34$170.00
08-05 19:29Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?BUY0.0058503182$10.00
08-05 19:29Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?BUY0.0024694069$55.00
08-05 19:26Will Meta have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of August 2026?BUY0.0047664823$0.56