PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

LePaix

0xae694e8e1a7afc8825a5ac1c57ae93651dba65c9

Realised P&L
$3.0k
Volume
$207.0k
Markets traded
402
Open portfolio
$2.6k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded402
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration48.5% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration29.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? · Yes0.2500.255$765.00+$15.00
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? · Yes0.3600.365$365.00+$5.00
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.5800.595$297.50+$7.50
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes0.1410.590$295.00+$224.50
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? · Yes0.1970.470$235.00+$136.47
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August? · Yes0.2760.455$204.74+$80.69
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August? · Yes0.3700.785$196.25+$103.75
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.1710.207$103.75+$18.25
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.4100.445$89.00+$7.00
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.1450.118$23.70$5.30
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0280.024$11.75$2.25
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? · Yes0.6170.000$0.00$30.85
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? · Yes0.4990.000$0.00$24.95
Will Warsh say "Jerome" or "Powell" during June Press Conference? · Yes0.6800.000$0.00$6.80
Will Powell say "War" during April press conference? · Yes0.5600.000$0.00$5.60

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-02 04:08Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?BUY0.25$750.00
08-02 01:28US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?BUY0.19706$98.53
08-02 01:24Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?BUY0.232786$46.56
08-01 15:32Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?SELL0.901$45.05
08-01 06:15US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?BUY0.12$42.00
07-30 20:30US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?BUY0.19$28.50
07-30 20:29Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?BUY0.6$4.70
07-28 02:26Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?SELL0.124$12.40
07-28 02:25US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?SELL0.999$749.25
07-25 17:08US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?BUY0.36$90.00
07-20 23:48Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.118$11.80
07-20 23:46US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?BUY0.2928528$146.43
07-15 20:55Will England win on 2026-07-15?SELL0.0025$0.25
07-15 20:55Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.009$4.50
07-15 15:08Will England win on 2026-07-15?BUY0.36$36.00