LePaix
0xae694e8e1a7afc8825a5ac1c57ae93651dba65c9
- Realised P&L
- $3.0k
- Volume
- $207.0k
- Markets traded
- 402
- Open portfolio
- $2.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded402
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.430US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$712.10at 0.089US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$512.82at 0.315US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
- +$484.29at 0.766No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's January 2026 meeting?
- +$338.18at 0.126US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 04:08 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? | BUY | 0.25 | $750.00 |
| 08-02 01:28 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.19706 | $98.53 |
| 08-02 01:24 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August? | BUY | 0.232786 | $46.56 |
| 08-01 15:32 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31? | SELL | 0.901 | $45.05 |
| 08-01 06:15 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.12 | $42.00 |
| 07-30 20:30 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.19 | $28.50 |
| 07-30 20:29 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31? | BUY | 0.6 | $4.70 |
| 07-28 02:26 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.124 | $12.40 |
| 07-28 02:25 | US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $749.25 |
| 07-25 17:08 | US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31? | BUY | 0.36 | $90.00 |
| 07-20 23:48 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.118 | $11.80 |
| 07-20 23:46 | US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31? | BUY | 0.2928528 | $146.43 |
| 07-15 20:55 | Will England win on 2026-07-15? | SELL | 0.0025 | $0.25 |
| 07-15 20:55 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.009 | $4.50 |
| 07-15 15:08 | Will England win on 2026-07-15? | BUY | 0.36 | $36.00 |