bathon
0xae2f4fd68dd278526f308613e6fb6e3d6592db23
- Realised P&L
- $10.2k
- Volume
- $182.3k
- Markets traded
- 5,990
- Open portfolio
- $9.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- CautionMarkets traded5,990
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration7.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.332 | 0.165 | $9.8k | −$9.8k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$20.2kat 0.643US forces enter Iran by December 31?
- +$500.54at 0.134Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET
- +$314.25at 0.219Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET
- +$259.98at 0.307Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET
- +$207.60at 0.156Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-06 15:50 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 11AM ET | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 14:59 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET | BUY | 0.65 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 14:39 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET | BUY | 0.4799998272 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 13:59 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET | SELL | 0.42 | $0.56 |
| 08-06 13:59 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 13:34 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET | BUY | 0.719999856 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 09:59 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET | BUY | 0.7099999432 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 09:34 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 08:04 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET | BUY | 0.63 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 07:54 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET | BUY | 0.4599997608 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 07:14 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET | BUY | 0.64 | $1.01 |
| 08-06 06:59 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 06:50 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 2AM ET | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 06:39 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET | BUY | 0.7899999921 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 05:54 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |