bathon
0xae2f4fd68dd278526f308613e6fb6e3d6592db23
- Realised P&L
- $12.0k
- Volume
- $182.1k
- Markets traded
- 5,863
- Open portfolio
- $11.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- CautionMarkets traded5,863
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration8.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.332 | 0.205 | $12.1k | −$7.5k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$20.2kat 0.643US forces enter Iran by December 31?
- +$505.11at 0.126Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET
- +$318.90at 0.208Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET
- +$209.82at 0.147Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET
- +$208.92at 0.158Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 21:35 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET | SELL | 0.4 | $0.54 |
| 08-02 21:34 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET | BUY | 0.7599998538 | $1.04 |
| 08-02 20:50 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 2, 4PM ET | BUY | 0.6999998641 | $1.03 |
| 08-02 20:50 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 2, 4PM ET | BUY | 0.6999998641 | $1.03 |
| 08-02 16:49 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 2, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET | BUY | 0.7799999849 | $1.03 |
| 08-02 14:56 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 2, 10AM ET | BUY | 0.5699999336 | $1.03 |
| 08-02 14:56 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 2, 10AM ET | BUY | 0.5599999783 | $1.03 |
| 08-02 14:53 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 2, 10AM ET | BUY | 0.8 | $1.03 |
| 08-02 14:53 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 2, 10AM ET | BUY | 0.8 | $1.03 |
| 08-02 14:34 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET | BUY | 0.5965250932 | $1.03 |
| 08-02 13:09 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 2, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET | BUY | 0.7799999849 | $1.03 |
| 08-02 12:44 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 2, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET | BUY | 0.629999792 | $1.03 |
| 08-02 12:34 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 2, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET | BUY | 0.6 | $1.03 |
| 08-02 11:34 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 2, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET | BUY | 0.669999974 | $1.03 |
| 08-02 10:09 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 2, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET | BUY | 0.7799999849 | $1.03 |