TinnedFish
0xadd393bb17ee816358b1c879da414660e16a263f
- Realised P&L
- $125.59
- Volume
- $15.4k
- Markets traded
- 311
- Open portfolio
- $34.15
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded311
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Angus Taylor be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election? · No | 0.830 | 0.825 | $16.50 | −$0.10 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · No | 0.570 | 0.375 | $7.50 | −$3.90 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.720 | 0.745 | $7.45 | +$0.25 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.135 | $2.70 | −$9.50 |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · No | 0.430 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.30 |
| Will Hollow Knight: Silksong win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? · Yes | 0.054 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.16 |
| Will Caroline van der Plas become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? · Yes | 0.033 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.33 |
| Will Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? · Yes | 0.033 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.33 |
| Will Trump resign in 2025? · Yes | 0.085 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.70 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$45.93at 0.082Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship?
- +$37.13at 0.052Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?
- +$29.74at 0.064Will Peter Dutton be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 2025 election?
- +$25.24at 0.750Will Anthony Albanese be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 2025 election?
- +$15.60at 0.560Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-30 10:35 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $7.20 |
| 07-29 12:49 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.43 | $4.30 |
| 07-08 00:24 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.61 | $12.20 |
| 07-05 02:57 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.51 | $10.20 |
| 06-30 12:35 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.63 | $6.30 |
| 06-24 08:40 | Will Angus Taylor be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election? | BUY | 0.83 | $16.60 |
| 06-24 03:23 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 06-21 17:17 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY | 0.77 | $15.40 |
| 06-18 02:08 | Will Pauline Hanson be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election? | BUY | 0.7 | $35.00 |
| 06-14 23:27 | Will Pauline Hanson be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election? | SELL | 0.86 | $17.20 |
| 06-13 07:12 | Will Pauline Hanson be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election? | BUY | 0.74 | $14.80 |
| 12-02 20:22 | Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? | SELL | 0.28 | $5.60 |
| 12-02 01:38 | Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? | SELL | 0.952 | $19.04 |
| 11-17 02:17 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31? | SELL | 0.62 | $12.40 |
| 11-14 04:40 | Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? | BUY | 0.24 | $4.80 |