0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49
0xad96914d7762dac84ebbabafe366ae8ff24dd498
- Realised P&L
- $151.8k
- Volume
- $12.37M
- Markets traded
- 97
- Open portfolio
- $32.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded97
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration76.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? · No | 0.863 | 0.890 | $24.7k | +$750.12 |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? · No | 0.930 | 0.955 | $7.5k | +$197.20 |
| Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.845 | $150.30 | +$22.23 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.244 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.9k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$29.3kat 0.242Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$23.4kat 0.906Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
- +$18.1kat 0.905No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?
- +$15.1kat 0.757Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- +$12.7kat 0.920No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 12:04 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.7786580594 | $4.9k |
| 08-03 12:04 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.7811274468 | $364.7k |
| 08-02 02:08 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.77 | $267.2k |
| 07-30 11:16 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.74 | $50.7k |
| 07-27 15:55 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.78 | $24.1k |
| 07-27 10:44 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.79 | $1.9k |
| 07-23 23:29 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? | BUY | 0.272 | $1.36 |
| 07-23 20:24 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? | BUY | 0.2699946928 | $982.87 |
| 07-23 13:56 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.261 | $1.2k |
| 07-23 13:55 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2653144791 | $3.2k |
| 07-23 13:28 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.261 | $861.56 |
| 07-23 13:26 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.264 | $7.5k |
| 07-23 13:20 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.261 | $1.1k |
| 07-23 12:49 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? | BUY | 0.25 | $219.88 |
| 07-23 12:37 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.241 | $2.0k |