0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49
0xad96914d7762dac84ebbabafe366ae8ff24dd498
- Realised P&L
- $167.1k
- Volume
- $14.62M
- Markets traded
- 107
- Open portfolio
- $492.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded107
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.836 | 0.835 | $278.6k | −$231.55 |
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? · No | 0.903 | 0.975 | $131.6k | +$9.6k |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.965 | 0.968 | $58.0k | +$170.64 |
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? · Yes | 0.985 | 0.997 | $24.4k | +$280.27 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.244 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.9k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$28.8kat 0.242Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$23.4kat 0.906Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
- +$18.1kat 0.905No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?
- +$12.7kat 0.920No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?
- +$10.7kat 0.961No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 09:20 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.82 | $46.2k |
| 10-28 23:47 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.81 | $28.7k |
| 10-28 22:34 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31? | BUY | 0.996 | $128.79 |
| 10-28 10:33 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.948 | $1.6k |
| 10-25 22:09 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31? | SELL | 0.995 | $399.53 |
| 10-07 01:51 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31? | BUY | 0.99 | $29.0k |
| 10-07 00:11 | Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? | BUY | 0.983 | $18.3k |
| 10-05 21:23 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.85 | $83.8k |
| 10-05 21:23 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.85 | $47.7k |
| 10-01 17:56 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.85 | $2.9k |
| 09-30 19:58 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | SELL | 0.999 | $999.00 |
| 09-23 04:25 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | SELL | 0.999 | $8.4k |
| 09-22 09:04 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.85 | $5.9k |
| 09-22 09:04 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | SELL | 0.994 | $5.9k |
| 09-22 08:55 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.85 | $83.2k |