0xad6fe27e51562b664ff380b8b6e312f589e8deec
- Realised P&L
- $6.92
- Volume
- $170.50
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $81.77
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration34.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration14.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? · No | 0.900 | 0.925 | $11.53 | +$0.31 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.875 | $10.36 | +$1.01 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? · No | 0.880 | 0.875 | $9.15 | −$0.05 |
| Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? · No | 0.920 | 0.935 | $9.03 | +$0.14 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.910 | 0.935 | $8.79 | +$0.23 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Lebanon in 2026? · No | 0.938 | 0.972 | $8.55 | +$0.29 |
| Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.830 | 0.710 | $8.33 | −$1.41 |
| Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.770 | 0.525 | $7.29 | −$3.40 |
| Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? · No | 0.820 | 0.680 | $6.69 | −$1.38 |
| Will Iran target Qatar by September 15, 2026? · No | 0.850 | 0.988 | $2.05 | +$0.29 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.76at 0.710Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 31, 2026?
- +$2.15at 0.820Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 15, 2026?
- +$1.94at 0.840Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by August 31, 2026?
- +$0.86at 0.910Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
- +$0.84at 0.926Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?