PauloCVSilva
0xad4234f35f30071e5495778a9a5520de0944fe63
- Realised P&L
- $-5.4k
- Volume
- $624.7k
- Markets traded
- 108
- Open portfolio
- $25.21
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded108
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration86.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.315 | $13.70 | +$3.70 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.021 | 0.021 | $9.52 | −$0.48 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.026 | $2.00 | −$0.32 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$595.35 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.016 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.4k |
| Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.228 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$251.10 |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.47 |
| Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.012 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$29.17 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.6k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$816.47at 0.230Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?
- +$117.28at 0.810US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?
- +$58.40at 0.765Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?
- +$47.30at 0.843Will António José Seguro qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
- +$46.29at 0.680US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 18:10 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting? | BUY | 0.0302184872 | $2.32 |
| 09-16 18:09 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? | BUY | 0.2299999993 | $10.00 |
| 09-16 18:08 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0215271542 | $10.00 |
| 05-12 14:17 | Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the June 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.01 |
| 05-04 12:15 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.004 | $160.00 |
| 04-23 18:35 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.002 | $156.80 |
| 04-13 13:59 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.029 | $9.20 |
| 04-12 22:30 | Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | BUY | 0.95 | $57.00 |
| 04-11 16:09 | Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | BUY | 0.71 | $142.00 |
| 04-03 14:48 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.007 | $5.88 |
| 04-02 19:01 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.008 | $40.00 |
| 04-02 18:59 | Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.2511150558 | $50.22 |
| 04-02 17:31 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 04-02 14:40 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.014 | $9.80 |
| 04-02 14:38 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0149773532 | $28.44 |