PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Lywx

0xad3550bed24db1ae646cd30301720a08face6cd9

Realised P&L
$-542.92
Volume
$10.9k
Markets traded
38
Open portfolio
$491.96

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-5.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded38
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration33.3% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample28 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)39.3%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration47.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No0.8300.972$234.10+$34.10
Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? · Yes0.1050.150$143.24+$43.24
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? · No0.6240.715$114.63+$14.63
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.4400.000$0.00−$20.00
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.1900.000$0.00−$200.00
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.6170.000$0.00−$200.00
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0600.000$0.00−$20.00
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes0.2600.000$0.00−$20.00
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · No0.6500.000$0.00−$100.00
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0520.000$0.00−$20.00
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No0.4390.000$0.00−$20.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-25 22:16Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.4399999947$20.00
10-25 22:16Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.4389999958$20.00
10-25 21:38Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL0.34310255$137.24
09-26 04:55Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.45$180.00
08-21 16:45Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?BUY0.105068295$100.00
08-21 16:45Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?BUY0.6237623751$100.00
07-18 22:34France vs. England: Team to WinBUY0.5369999984$100.00
07-18 21:39Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.649999999$100.00
07-18 21:38Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.6220842282$100.00
07-16 20:41Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.6119999983$100.00
06-29 01:54Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.0519999976$20.00
06-29 01:54Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.0599999972$20.00
06-27 14:21Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.1899715036$200.00
06-13 10:35Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?BUY0.6999999997$251.73
04-08 00:03Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?SELL0.02705938$27.06