PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

BalmyF

0xad1d027a2feb414653f5ce4a568d98022e01e1b0

Realised P&L
$-85.43
Volume
$78.4k
Markets traded
8,750
Open portfolio
$1.6k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded8,750
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration6.7% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration34.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026? · No0.8380.980$547.95+$78.96
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · No0.7900.850$501.39+$35.39
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026? · No0.6910.735$467.87+$27.87
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2027? · Yes0.1400.180$52.71+$11.71
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting? · Yes0.0260.025$0.98−$0.02
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 11, 2026? · No0.0700.026$0.37−$0.63
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET · Down0.9370.000$0.00−$29.60
Ethereum Up or Down - July 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET · Down0.9680.000$0.00−$18.00
XRP Up or Down - August 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET · Down0.9500.000$0.00−$1.00
XRP Up or Down - August 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET · Down0.5440.000$0.00−$10.00
Solana Up or Down - July 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET · Up0.7900.000$0.00−$1.00
Solana Up or Down - August 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET · Down0.7940.000$0.00−$10.00
Ethereum Up or Down - August 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET · Up0.9500.000$0.00−$26.00
Solana Up or Down - September 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET · Up0.6600.000$0.00−$10.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET · Up0.9300.000$0.00−$25.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-09 21:49Will Russia target Kyiv on October 11, 2026?BUY0.0699999965$1.00
10-09 21:49Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?SELL0.962$0.96
10-08 21:37Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2027?BUY0.1399999999$41.00
10-08 21:34Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?BUY0.0259999996$1.00
10-08 21:12Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026?BUY0.6912243307$440.00
09-28 20:16Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?BUY0.8383497052$889.00
09-26 19:17Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?BUY0.7899999996$466.00
09-26 18:16XRP Up or Down - September 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ETBUY0.6521739045$10.00
09-26 18:16Solana Up or Down - September 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ETBUY0.7299999876$10.00
09-26 18:16Ethereum Up or Down - September 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ETBUY0.6599999842$10.00
09-26 18:16Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ETBUY0.6199999864$10.00
09-26 18:01XRP Up or Down - September 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ETBUY0.6899999821$10.00
09-26 18:01Solana Up or Down - September 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ETBUY0.5654761753$10.00
09-26 18:01Ethereum Up or Down - September 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ETBUY0.6499999935$10.00
09-26 18:01Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ETBUY0.609999986$10.00